After about a third of the way through the fantasy season, there are some clear offenses to target when looking for pitching streamers. Teams like the Pirates, Rockies, and White Sox have proven to be great matchups for opposing pitchers. These teams and a handful others will be major targets for streaming, not just this week, but going forward – unless the data says otherwise.
Take a look below at some of my favorite targets for the upcoming week.
Pitching Streamers Available in Some Leagues (Over 30% Rostered)
Merrill Kelly (SP – ARI)
Next Start: Sunday, 5/18 vs COL
Merrill Kelly is not a sexy name in fantasy baseball, but he has five quality starts, a 4-2 record, and a 3.71 ERA. He should be more widely rostered, but because he is not, he is a top streaming choice this week, especially in shallow leagues.
Fantasy managers may be afraid to commit to Kelly thanks to a checkered injury history. Despite that, he appears to be the real deal. Plus he has a great matchup against the Rockies in Arizona, with the Rockies ranking as one of the worst offenses in the league. They own the league’s worst run differential, the second highest strikeout total and strikeout rate, and the fifth fewest home runs.
Kelly has averaged eight strikeouts per nine innings for his career, and is under that mark this season. But he could get some help in that department with Colorado striking out so much. Kelly has also been excellent at limiting home runs, something that lines up perfectly in this game against a Rockies team that struggles to hit the long ball.
The veteran has leaned on a fastball, cutter, and changeup combination that has led to great success. His cutter has a .097 batting average against and a 30% putaway rate, while his changeup possesses a .216 BAA, a 29% whiff rate, and a 21% putaway rate. Take a look at why his changeup is so hard to hit:
Merrill Kelly, Wicked Changeups. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/ODVekcoEmj
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 13, 2025
If Kelly is available in your leagues, he is a must-roster type of player, and should be among the top pitching streamers for the week ahead.
JP Sears (SP – ATH)
Next Start: Wednesday, 5/21 vs LAA
JP Sears is another pitcher that is under-rostered, likely because of expected regression, and a bit of distrust from fantasy managers. Still, a 4-2 record, four quality starts, and a 2.80 ERA is worth rostering even in shallow leagues, despite coming regression.
Sears does not strike out a lot of batters, just 7.2 per nine innings, but he limits walks and homers. Where regression may come, though, is to his uncharacteristically low BABIP, a HR/FB rate below league average, and a LOB rate that is 7% higher than normal.
Regardless of that regression, this is a great matchup for Sears. The Angels possess the fourth-worst run differential in baseball. They also strike out more than anyone, and have the league’s highest strikeout rate. Sears has struck out more than five batters just three times in eight starts this season, but this could be another high strikeout game as he could get a hand in that department.
Arguably, Sears’ best pitch is his slider, with a .182 BAA and a 32% whiff rate and a 28% strikeout rate. It is surprisingly a major weapon for him against righty batters, and should be a pitch he relies on in this game. Here is a look at it:
JP Sears, Dirty 81mph Slider. 😨 pic.twitter.com/JOF2yliKrD
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 24, 2025
Ignore the threat of regression for Sears, and make him one of your top pitching streamers for the upcoming week.
AJ Smith-Shawver (SP – ARI)
Next Start: Thursday, 5/22 at WAS
AJ Smith-Shawver has been a hot add in fantasy leagues, so if he is still available in your league, this is the time to scoop him up.
Smith-Shawver has a solid matchup against the Nationals, despite Washington having a modest offense. There are areas where they struggle, though, that Smith-Shawver should be able to exploit. The Nats have the league’s worst groundball rate and the fifth-worst run differential in baseball. Smith-Shawver’s 35% GB rate ranks below league average, but he should not worry in this one with the Nationals struggling to put the ball in the air.
Smith-Shawver has excelled this season at inducing strikeouts, with a 9.3 K/9 rate this season, though his 4 BB/9 rate is a bit worrying. Even with that high walk rate, he has limited baserunners from scoring, with an 85% LOB rate. A major reason for his sterling strikeout rate comes thanks to a wicked splitter. That pitch has a .135 BAA, a 43% whiff rate, a 46% K rate, and a 28% putaway rate. Here is a look at it in action:
AJ Smith-Shawver, Dirty 85mph Split-Change. ✌️ pic.twitter.com/oqs6tSJPFk
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 12, 2025
Smith-Shawver should be on everyone’s radar as one of the best pitching streamers for the coming matchup.
Widely Available Pitching Streamers (0%-29% Rostered)
Gunnar Hoglund (SP – ATH)
Next Start: Monday, 5/19 vs LAA
Aside from a rough start against the Dodgers, Gunnar Hoglund looked solid in his two previous starts. In 11.1 innings before he faced the Dodgers, Hoglund allowed three earned runs with 10 strikeouts and one walk.
Aside from some tough home run luck, he has pitched pretty close to how he did in the minors. Hoglund hovered around eight to nine strikeouts per nine innings, two walks per nine, a groundball rate in the mid-40% range, and a 75-80% LOB rate. If he can continue to do that in the majors, he should have a successful season. Those skills also make him a great streaming target this week against the Angels.
As mentioned previously, the Angels rank among the worst in baseball in run differential and strikeouts. Both of those are strengths of Hoglund. It is a small sample size, but his fastball, changeup, and sweeper have whiff rates of 27%, 36%, and 54%, respectively. They also have 21%, 33%, and 40% strikeout rates, respectively. Here is a look at his changeup and why it has been so successful:
Gunnar Hoglund, Wicked 87mph Changeup…and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/ZhBbvv5cbr
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 2, 2025
Hoglund should have a good outing against the Angels, and could be worth rostering more than just as one of the pitching streamers for the coming week.
Jameson Taillon (SP – ChC)
Next Start: Tuesday, 5/20 at MIA
Jameson Taillon had a rough, five-run outing against the Mets, but followed that with a quality start against Miami. He gave up three earned runs in the contest, his fourth time in nine games doing so, though he did not walk a batter.
Despite a little bit of an inconsistent season, Taillon should be in consideration for adding in another matchup against the Marlins. Miami has a lackluster offense, with the second-worst run differential in the league. They also have the 10th worst GB%, and the 10th fewest home runs, which should help Taillon’s inflated HR/9 and HR/FB rate see some positive regression.
Even with some struggles in the home run department, Taillon has done well to limit walks, with the third-best BB/9 rate of his career. He also improved his K/9 rate from last season, and owns the second-best LOB% of his career. This makes his start against Miami a prime target for streaming.
Taillon has reworked his pitch mix slightly, and his sweeper has not performed like it did last year. It was arguably his best pitch last season, but batters have hit it well this season. If he can get it to work like this, and like it did last season, we could see a major improvement to his ERA:
Jameson Taillon, Wicked 82mph Sweeper. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/fuARXzJMPs
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 15, 2025
Taillon should be on your radar as one of the top pitching streamers for the next matchup.
Matthew Boyd (SP – ChC)
Next Start: Friday, 5/23 at CIN
There is some inherent risk in this one being played in Cincinnati, the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball. But Matthew Boyd has looked good this season, and Cincy has struggled offensively.
The Reds’ biggest offensive issues are strikeouts and groundballs. They have the league’s fourth-highest strikeout total and strikeout rate, as well as the fifth-highest groundball rate. The groundball rate, especially, should mitigate some of the damage done against Boyd in this one, even with his GB% being slightly below league average.
Boyd also has a modest 8.9 K/9 rate, a strength that plays into Cincy’s biggest weakness. He should rely on his changeup in this one, despite its .327 BAA. It has a 36% whiff rate, a 22% K rate, and a 25% putaway rate. This should be something he tosses a bunch in this matchup, with the Reds owning the sixth-worst AVG against lefty pitchers. It could result in his changeup’s BAA inching closer to its .235 xBAA. Take a look at it here:
Matthew Boyd, Dirty 79mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/xNzj9oarRQ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 6, 2025
This is a matchup you need to exploit, so make Boyd one of your top pitching streamers for the week ahead.
Backup Plan Streamers
- TB Shane Baz at MIA – Sunday 5/18
- ChC Ben Brown at MIA – Monday 5/19
- CIN Nick Martinez at PIT – Tuesday 5/20
- CWS Shane Smith vs SEA – Wednesday 5/21
- ATH Luis Severino vs LAA – Thursday 5/22
Desperation Streamers
- ChC Colin Rea vs CWS – Sunday 5/18
- ChC Cade Horton at MIA – Wednesday 5/21
- SD Stephen Kolek at TOR – Thursday 5/22
