Trading in dynasty leagues is a little more complicated than in redraft leagues. You have to weigh current vs. future value, and there’s less consensus around player value. For redraft, there are plenty of lists and player raters that can tell you what your players are worth. In dynasty, not only are prospect lists more variable, especially past the top 10 or so, but how individuals value particular prospects can vary widely. If an owner loves a prospect that you want, you probably just aren’t going to get them for a reasonable price, and you have to live with that.
Prospect Trading in Dynasty Leagues
Prospects in dynasty are ultimately assets. You either invest time and a roster spot until they come up and produce for you, or you trade them for someone who is producing now. People talk about having “shares” of players they own in multiple leagues, and that’s an even more apt analogy in dynasty. A prospect’s value is generally highest when they’ve just been called up. This gives them the ideal combination of present and future value – they have their whole career ahead of them, without having seen them struggle in the big leagues yet. A poor start can quickly erase this call-up bump, while a hot start can pump a middling prospect to unforeseen heights if they hit the ground running.
The Information Game
I talked about this in previous entries to this series, but it’s worth mentioning again. We’re not out to trick or dupe other owners in trades – we want everyone to come away happy, or they won’t want to trade with us in the future. You can still use information to your advantage, and maybe trade for a guy before he jumps up lists, or trade a well-regarded prospect at a slight discount if you see some red flags in their minor league numbers. Just expect that the manager who owns a prospect will know the most about their guys, and will take some time to check the numbers on anyone you offer them. If that’s just spring rankings, you may be in luck, but if they look at the same sources you do, they’ll likely change their valuation of the player, too.
Contention Cycles
This is about the time of year when owners start deciding if they’re in it this year or not. Some knew from well before Opening Day, but early-season breakouts, struggles, and injuries have likely sorted out the middle of the pack by now.
Buying Prospects
If you’re throwing in the towel for this season, now is a great time to buy prospects before the major lists update around the draft in the summer. This is a little harder as update cycles tighten on some sites, but even if you have to pay for the new rank, we’ve learned something about these prospects since spring. Look at the top teams in the standings, but maybe not first place. Unless they just had a big injury, they may not have holes to fill, and would rather not sell what few shiny prospects they have when their big league squad is getting the job done. Target them closer to the deadline when they’re thinking about a title. Any middle-of-the-pack to 2nd-place team is going to be much hungrier to make a move to challenge the big dog.
A lot of the same basic ideas as redraft apply here. Look at what a team needs that you can help fill. Sell high on guys off to hot starts of course, just know that you’ll get less for a 33-year-old on a heater than a 26-year-old late-bloomer or former prospect. Ben Rice, Spencer Torkelson, and Casey Mize will fetch you a much bigger haul than Javy Baez or Trevor Story (you should still flip them while you can, though).
My biggest tip for buying prospects is to include some future value in your offer. It’s much easier for a contender to trade a 20-year-old for a 30-year-old if they’re getting a lesser-ranked prospect or extra FYP pick in the deal. Proximity can help here, they’ll be happier to ship a guy in low-A for a crusty vet if they also get someone in AAA who could become a regular, if unexciting contributor to their roster. Alternatively, they might be more willing to take on a high-risk guy with some potential.
Where you are in your rebuild matters, too. If you just tore it down, you probably want the low-A lottery ticket, but if you’ve been building your farm for a while, you might be looking to consolidate prospects and align several guys with similar ETAs so your next core arrives together. If you think your top guys will be up within a year, it probably makes sense to ship a guy in A-ball for someone closer. You might even try to buy post-hype prospects who have struggled in the bigs or maybe haven’t secured a full-time job yet.
Selling Prospects
Whether your team is old or young, if you want to win a championship, you’re going to have to put on your Dave Dombrowski hat and trade from your farm. It’s hard to let go of bona fide top 25 prospects, but don’t be afraid to sell anyone at AA or lower. If you’re using the tools I’ve talked about in this series and following some trusted talent evaluators, you should have confidence that you’ll be able to find guys to replace them. The benefit of being a good team with a thin farm is that you get to take chances on small samples and unheralded names.
Like I mentioned in selling, try to get a team’s worst prospect back. Minor league roster spots are an asset, and their 15th-best guy might be your 5th right away. If you’re a perennial title contender, you won’t be picking high in the FYP draft, so you’ll want extra picks. Some of today’s top players weren’t top 5 FYPs. Vladdy and Tatis were both ranked in the 20s or 30s when first eligible in most leagues. Roman Anthony was likely a 4th-rounder, if he was drafted. So, try to have some extra shots to take in the 2nd and 3rd. The team with a stacked farm probably won’t even have room to use their 3rd rounder.
Time is an Asset
Treat injured players like prospects. A star who is out for the year is more future value than present, and if you’re not competitive, you can afford the time that they’re on the shelf. Last year, I kicked off a rebuild by trading Mookie Betts for a just-injured Acuña, hoping to execute a quick turnaround. This can be an excellent strategy if you’re one of the middle-of-the-pack teams that doesn’t want to commit to a full teardown, but just have too many injuries to overcome this year yourself.
Ultimately, your league will set the market for prospects and veterans, and you’ll have to adjust your expectations accordingly. A roto league where one team is running away with it might not have enough buyers to make a trade beneficial for your team at certain points.
