Prospect Savant recently added EV50 and EV90 stats, showing 50th and 90th percentile exit velocity numbers. Max and average are easy for quick reference, but research has found that 90th percentile EV becomes stickier faster and is more predictive than either. MaxEV is valuable, but it is possible to have an outlier result, whereas 90th percentile requires some consistency in a player’s ability to smash balls. When I started looking at EV90 I immediately found an interesting example of why it’s good to use statcast data and not just their traditional stats.
EV90 Standouts
Ernesto Martinez Jr.
His top line stats aren’t jumping off the page. .264/.397/.425 with 4 homers and a single steal in 30 games. We like his plate stats – 16.8% walk rate and 19.1% K rate, but .160 ISOs put me to sleep faster than Ben Lindbergh talking about Yusei Kikuchi’s sleep habits, and even his .182 last year is the bare minimum to show up in my queries. Martinez was a high-K guy until he got to AA in 2023, and he’s kept it under 20% since, but his 60-grade raw power simply hasn’t shown up in game, topping out at 13 homers in 457 PAs last year. That’s why we have to pop the hood and see what’s going on in the underlying numbers
Oh. OH.
Ernesto leads the minors in EV90 at 111. That would be good for an 81st percentile MaxEV. Spencer Torkelson hasn’t hit a ball 111 this year. That’s ridiculous already, but what stands out is that he’s also 70th percentile in the “Discipline” metric, which is a composite of swing decisions and contact rates. There’s plenty of EV leaders murdering baseballs but flailing at everything and doing their best windmill impressions. So I want to focus on guys who are making good choices and good contact at the same time.
Slicing and dicing the under-26 names with above average EV90 and Discipline you get a some 2025 callups – Marcelo Mayer, Denzel Clarke, Moisés Ballesteros, Matt Shaw, Dalton Rushing Daylen Lile and Allen Roden, along with a handful of recent big leaguers like Marco Luciano, Jonathan Rodriguez, Liover Peguero and Zach Neto on a rehab assignment. It’s the remaining names who are still in the minors and maybe under the radar who interest me
Roman Anthony and Cole Young are highly rated prospects, and making this list at 21 is a big part of why. Ernesto won’t meet the age cutoff in just a few weeks, which is one word of caution I’ll note.
Gabriel Rincones Jr.
Rincones has been popping on statcast numbers since April and put up a .201 ISO last year with a 25% strikeout rate. The good news is that that’s under 23% this year at AAA, but the ISO is down too. It’s not too hard to find the culprit in a 50% ground ball rate, up from 35% in 2024. He’s got the wheels (84th %) to take some advantage of that, but it’s not clear if he can both lift the ball and make good contact at the same time. Until that question is answered, he’s limited to high-teens home run totals, but if the speed plays a 15-25 guy is useful in deeper leagues. The scouting report notes shruggy defense and an inability to hit lefties, so a strong side platoon could limit his ceiling, too. That said, average outfield defense would be an upgrade in Philly so he should find some kind of role there this summer. Deep league spec. Shallower leagues could take a flyer when he gets the call.
Hao-Yu Lee
Unlike Rincones, Taiwanese Hao-Yu Lee is getting to all of his 5’10” power and proving that his .290 ISO in 2024 wasn’t a total fluke. He’s hitting more line drives in his first taste of AAA, so he might also have a power ceiling in the teens. He’s got similar speed and reached mid-teens in each of his minor league seasons, with 6 so far this year. He has fewer defensive and platoon concerns, but has had multiple lower back issues that have prevented him from recording a full season. He lacks a standout tool but is above average in every hitting metric. He could be a good deep league MI plug-in, but I’m not speculating outside of only-leagues or deep farms.
Jacob Melton
Melton is also turning his Savant page red with only Zone Swing% below average, which can be a sign of passivity or good selectivity, avoiding pitches he can’t damage. His minors-leading 99.2 EV50 suggests the latter. Roman Anthony (98.9) and Ernesto Martinez Jr. (97.9) have similarly shaped Savant pages. Melton has the smallest sample of the three, having missed time with a groin injury. Despite that, his .283 ISO is the highest of the bunch, all while keeping his K rate under 22% for only the second time (High A in 2023 was the other). His ground ball rate is going the opposite direction of Rincones – 36.4% compared to almost 50 in 2024 and a prior low of 42.3%.
His off-season write-up on BP said he didn’t “have the above-average contact rates or swing decisions to buoy his offensive line,” but he’s rewriting that narrative so far. He was a fringe top 100 prospect even with that knock on his profile. This is the kind of improvement that should jump him up lists if it holds. Oh, did I mention he’s swiped 79 bags since the start of 2023? He shouldn’t be available in deep leagues, but in medium-shallow leagues, he’s definitely an add if he’s out there. For reference, I just dropped Colson Montgomery (35% K rate!) for him in a 14-team points league.
Christian Franklin
Franklin is another player whose ISOs don’t reflect his EVs, and the culprit here is the same as Rincones – a near 50% ground ball rate in AAA, and over 60% last year in AA. That’s Yandy Diaz territory. He did swipe 34 bases along the way and has added 8 more this year. It’s not blazing speed (69th percentile), but it’s enough to be of fantasy value and push high BABIPs when combined with his hard-hitting tendencies. FanGraphs pegs him as a 5th outfielder, and BP didn’t rank him in the Cubs’ org. The swing sounds like it might be similarly resistant to change as Yandy’s, but if it does, I’m interested. Otherwise, I’m tepidly interested in deep leagues or OBP formats.
Dylan Beavers
Beavers just hit the IL with a shoulder sprain, so I’m not going to dig too deep, but he’s got fringy ISOs without a ground ball problem – his 30-35% in recent years might actually be the opposite problem, trying to lift too much. A 24% Infield fly rate last year supports that. We’ll see what he does when healthy.
In Summary
This is kind of a mixed bag, outside known list names, most of these guys have some obvious flaws keeping them from translating hard contact to real damage. With modern player dev, I’d still rather bet on that working, especially when backed by strong plate skills and speed. I’m most interested in Melton in all formats, while Rincones and Martinez Jr. are deeper league stashes. Lee, Franklin, and Beavers are still “Wait and sees” for now.
Effectively Wild mentioned