Pitching isn’t easy. Seeing results on the field is one thing, but finding supporting data to back up the success takes things to the next level. Let’s dig into the advanced pitching stats of three pitchers whose ERAs and FIPs support that success.
Fantasy Baseball Advanced Pitching Stats
Take a Deep Breath with Severino
Things were very ugly on Monday night for Luis Severino. That’s something we can’t dispute as the right-hander allowed eight runs in 5.2 innings of work. He gave up nine hits while only striking out one batter. We saw Severino’s ERA rise to 4.54 in what has been a challenging first season with the Athletics.
Upon a closer look though, perhaps it’s a problem with us, the fantasy baseball manager. Quite simply, we are using Severino incorrectly. The Athletics’ new stadium is less than ideal from a run prevention perspective. And when it comes to Severino, the disparity is startling. At this point, it has become glaring, and it’s something that can’t be ignored.
Following Monday’s start, Severino’s ERA at home is 6.99. It really doesn’t get much worse than that, but on the road, Severino’s pitching like a candidate for Cy Young. The disparity in ERA is staggering. as Severino is simply not an option when he’s at home. Away from the unfriendly confines, Severino’s ERA sits at 0.99. There’s nothing wrong with thinking of Severino as a streamer, but the lack of strikeouts (6.40 per nine innings) should also temper optimism.
Believe in Meyer
Let’s be clear, there isn’t much optimism coming out of Miami when it comes to fantasy baseball upside and the Marlins. Wins are really going to be difficult to come by, but aside from that, Max Meyer deserves our attention.
One problem is that health hasn’t worked in Meyer’s favor. He missed he 2023 season with Tommy John surgery, and now he’s been placed on the Injured List yet again. The good news is that it was an issue with his left hip and not his arm or shoulder. When the left-hander does return, likely before the end of the month, he should be on our radar.
Meyer’s ERA sits at 4.73, but it’s the 4.40 FIP and 3.34 xFIP that catch our attention. The left-hander is still finding his groove in the major leagues, but he’s striking out over a batter per inning. He keeps the ball on the ground about half the time, but to take the next step, Meyer now needs to keep the ball in the park. Allowing 1.67 home runs per nine innings simply doesn’t make it easy for Meyer. After pitching just 57 innings last year, a few weeks of rest for his arm while the hip heals could be a positive for Meyer as well.
Should We Believe in Martinez?
The reputation of the Cincinnati Reds’ home park is that it’s not friendly to pitchers. So then there’s some level of surprise to see the success that Nick Martinez has been enjoying this season. When you consider the track record of Martinez, that surprise even grows. Martinez’s splits then add another level as he’s been much better at home (2.73 ERA) than on the road (4.76 ERA).
On the season, Martinez has a 3.89 ERA, but his 3.58 FIP points to the potential for even better results. While there’s some clear fantasy benefit here, at least as a streaming option based on the matchup, we should temper the optimism. Martinez is only striking out 6.10 batters per nine innings, which limits his upside. The good news is that Martinez is walking just under two batters per nine innings while also keeping the ball in the park. At just a 6.5% barrel rate, hitters aren’t squaring up Martinez, which should lead to a continuation of solid results.
