As the third month of the season begins, fantasy baseball players are starting to show who they are in 2025. With two complete months of data, each player’s fantasy performance is starting to become less fluky and more representative. Is there still time for a player to adjust? Of course, but we can start to get a clearer picture of who is overvalued and undervalued in 2025 fantasy baseball.
Based on early performance, team usage, and changes to a player’s approach or mechanics, it’s already clear some players were undervalued in fantasy baseball draft rooms while others appear to have been overvalued.
This weekly piece will look at the past week to two weeks of fantasy baseball performances to see who should be considered overvalued and undervalued going forward. When necessary, I will reference the Fantrax top 500 rotisserie rankings for the 2025 fantasy baseball season.
Undervalued Fantasy Baseball Assets
(Stats are up to date as of June 2)
Jeremy Pena (SS – HOU)
Jeremy Pena has been getting a lot of love in fantasy baseball circles recently, so it’s not like he is some unknown player. But, since his move to the leadoff position for the Astros, this is a completely different player, and one that is now on pace to finish with a .300 average, 25 home runs, and 25 steals.
Only one player in baseball is currently hitting at least .300 and has double-digit home runs and steals. That player is Jose Ramirez. Jeremy Pena could be the next one over the following couple of days. Under the hood, Pena is making all the right adjustments as well. He has his lowest strikeout rate of his career. He also has his highest walk rate. Pena’s hard-hit rate and exit velocity are all the best of his career.
Pena has found a new home at the leadoff spot for Houston, and for a player who was picked around 160th in drafts, he has far exceeded what fantasy managers thought they were getting from him.
Jonathan Aranda (1B – TBR)
In case you missed it over the last seven days, Jonathan Aranda hit an insane .500/.619/.688 with a 19% strikeout rate in that week. His slugging percentage for the season is now a robust .509. Essentially, it’s the same as Eugenio Suarez, who has 16 home runs, nine more than Aranda. Aranda has had a phenomenal start to the season, including striking out only 24% of the time.
Aranda toiled away in AAA for some time, but is still just 26 years old and the starting first baseman in just about every game for the Rays. His exit velocity and barrel rate are up and look to be borderline elite. He is walking more than ever. And, perhaps most importantly, he is hitting a lot fewer ground balls and getting the ball in the air more than ever. He is not currently playing against left-handed pitching very much, which limits his immense upside somewhat. But for a player selected around pick 350 in spring drafts, he has already paid off whatever price you paid to get him.
If Aranda is available on your league’s waiver wire for some reason, go and pick him up immediately.
Bryan Woo (SP – SEA)
When pitchers like George Kirby and Logan Gilbert both go on the IL in the first month of the season, they need other pitchers in the rotation to take major steps up. Bryan Woo has been that pitcher for Seattle and has been better than they could have ever asked for. All he has done is win five games, post a 2.82 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, and strike out 63 batters in 70.1 innings.
Those numbers put him right on the line of the top ten pitchers in fantasy baseball this year. Only ten qualified starters have a WHIP under 1.o0, and Woo is one of them. He has cut down the use of his fastball this season in favor of more sliders and sinkers. And it’s absolutely working. His strikeout rate and home run rate are among the best they have been across his three professional seasons.
Overvalued Fantasy Baseball Assets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B – TOR)
I really don’t know how to read this guy. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has so much potential and all the right tools to be a fantasy superstar. But too often, he just isn’t. So far this season, Guerrero is hitting .283/.391/.438 with eight home runs and 28 RBI. Compared to his peers, he is tied for 56th in home runs and 79th in RBI. This is from a player who cost a top-15 pick in 2025 drafts.
Guerrero’s hard-hit rate is almost the same as in 2024. His barrel rate is one of the best of his career. And his max exit velocity is far and away the best of his career (120 miles per hour). His expected batting average is .323 this year, while his expected slugging is 535. There is a good hitter in here, and maybe it’s as simple as he needs to stop hitting 47% of his balls on the ground.
Whatever it is, Guerrero is climbing the ranks of the most maddening fantasy baseball hitters to roster year after year.
Bryan Reynolds (OF – PIT)
On Tuesday night, Bryan Reynolds went 0-for-4 with one strikeout, continuing a streak of disappointing games in a disappointing and underwhelming season. Often thought of as a high batting average addition to a team, Reynolds is hitting just .234 this season. The seven homers and three steals help fantasy teams a little bit, but most of his value comes from his average and runs. Both have been disappointing.
What’s most unusual this season is that his swing rate has stayed mostly consistent since last year. His contact rate and zone contact rate have actually gone up. His hard contact rate is up as well. All that looks to be off is an oversized 48% ground ball rate. He is 43% for his career, and needs to start getting back to his normal 23% line drive rate to drive the batting average back up. This is a player who has clearly not paid off his ADP so far.
Mason Miller (RP – ATH)
There needs to be a definitive story told about what has happened to the Mason Miller of 2024 compared to the Mason Miller of 2025. The Mason Miller of 2024 had a 2.49 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and 14.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The 2025 version is somehow better at striking hitters out (16.9 batters per nine innings), but his ERA and WHIP are abysmal. Those numbers are 5.49 and 1.32, respectively. Just like the Athletics’ team of late, Mason Miller has been quite poor.
Miller did decide to reduce the use of his (100 mile per hour) fastball this year, going from 63% in 2024 to 58% in 2025. His slider usage is way up, and perhaps hitters aren’t being fooled by that pitch the same way they would by a 101-mile-per-hour fastball. Miller does have 12 saves this year, so it’s not like he is devoid of fantasy value. But he is no longer the sure thing, lock-them-down closer he was as a rookie in 2024.
