The results aren’t where they should be for Dylan Cease to this point. That’s leaving a lot of frustrated fantasy owners. But the past is the past. What should we expect moving forward from Cease? Let’s dig into Cease and two other pitchers whose advanced pitching stats paint them in a favorable light.
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Fantasy Baseball Advanced Pitching Stats
The Numbers Should be Better
The San Diego Padres, and fantasy baseball managers for that matter, expect more out of Dylan Cease. Cease entered the All-Star break with a 4.88 ERA, and that’s simply something that can sabotage a fantasy team. Part of the problem is that Cease is too good to cut or to bench. At the same time, Cease can easily break out at any point.
From a track record perspective, Cease has us covered. However, you can say the same thing about his 3.69 FIP and 3.43 xFIP. Reconciling that to his 4.88 ERA is enough to cause stress to a fantasy manager concerned about their ratios. The problem, among other things, is that Cease’s 3-9 record matches his ERA. The good news, though, is that Cease is striking out over 11 batters per nine innings, so at least we are getting something.
It is troubling to see Cease allow 1.31 home runs per nine innings. The biggest culprit in his struggles is his 35.4% ground ball rate, which doesn’t do him any favors. However, would anyone really be surprised if he got down to his 3.69 FIP? And then we are telling a much different story about Cease.
The Velocity Should Match the Strikeouts
When you see Jose Soriano averaging 97.9 miles per hour with his fastball, the expectations are that the strikeouts will follow. However, at just 7.81 per nine innings, they are still in short supply. With a 3.90 ERA, though, we shouldn’t hold it too firmly against Soriano. His 3.35 FIP points us in the direction and keeps me invested from a fantasy perspective.
Now, if Soriano can limit the walks, then it’s possible for the right-hander to turn the concern into results. What works in Soriano’s favor is that opponents barrel up just 6.9% of the time when they do put their bat on the ball. With just 0.32 home runs allowed per nine innings, Soriano also does a great job of keeping the ball in the park.
Targeting a pitcher like Soriano, who isn’t a flashy name, and could be on the waiver wire, is a nice under-the-radar move.
Don’t Sleep on Webb
When you look at a starting pitcher with a 2.94 ERA, it’s really hard to expect much more from them. However, when you consider Logan Webb’s 2.52 FIP, it becomes clear. At the very least, you can take a look at Webb and feel better about his prospects for continued success in the second half of the season.
Webb has never been considered a truly overpowering option, but with 9.95 strikeouts per nine innings, it’s difficult to argue with those results. The fact that it comes with a 1.17 WHIP and just over 2.01 walks per nine innings makes things that much better. It’s difficult to find any complaints with Webb’s performance as he is generating a 51.8% ground ball rate. Opposing hitters aren’t feeling as good about the right-hander with just a 7.8% barrel rate against Webb.
He’s generally considered a tier or two below the fantasy baseball aces, but it’s time we give Webb his due.
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