Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Luis Morales’ fantasy baseball stock has shot up in the last two weeks. Due in part to his team’s offensive eruption – the Athletics have scored the 4th-most runs in baseball since Morales debuted on August 1 – the right-hander is 3-0. He’s tossed 28.1 innings, struck out 30 batters, and owns a 1.59 ERA. While it is yet to be seen whether or not he’ll live up to the surrounding hype, there are arguments for and against rostering Morales. We’ll break down his performance this season in four different areas: stuff, command, current results, and future ceiling.
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Analyzing Luis Morales’ Fantasy Baseball Outlook
Stuff
Four-Seam Fastball – Morales throws a four-seam fastball that averages over 97 MPH, which puts him in good company for starting pitchers. Only 15 other starters have a four-seam fastball with an average velocity at or above 97.2 MPH, a group that includes Jacob Misiorowski, Hunter Greene, Chase Burns, Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, and a variety of other frontline starters.
Despite throwing it at a high velocity, his fastball doesn’t set him up for success as his career progresses. It doesn’t have a unique movement profile – it “rises” 0.3 inches more than an average fastball, and has nearly identical horizontal movement – and he doesn’t get good extension, which gives the batter more time to make a swing decision. On average, Morales releases the ball 6.1 feet in front of the rubber. His 97.2 MPH fastball allows the batter the same reaction time as a pitcher with average extension throwing 96.6 MPH.
Slider & Sweeper – According to Fangraphs’ Stuff+ model, which measures pitch characteristics like spin and velocity independent of results, Morales has the fourth-best slider among starting pitchers with at least 20 IP. He throws the offering at nearly 86 MPH, and it has 5.4 inches more break than is typical.
Changeup – Despite Stuff+ grading it as his worst pitch by a significant margin, Morales’ changeup has been his best-performing offering this year. Hitters have a .274 xwOBA against it, and it has a higher run value than all his other pitch types.
Perhaps his changeup has performed so well because of its unique shape; it has over six inches less drop than is typical for said pitch type, which makes it slow down yet stay flat as it approaches the plate.
Whether or not hitters will adjust to its odd angle and speed remains to be seen. If Morales can continue deceiving hitters with an excellent offspeed pitch, it will enhance the value of his slider and arsenal as a whole.
Command
Contrary to what his 0.99 WHIP might suggest, Morales has a walk rate that would be concerning in the long term for a starting pitcher. He’s handed out free passes at a 9.9% clip this season, which would rank fifth-highest among qualified starting pitchers this season. Of the four pitchers above him, three have a WHIP above 1.29.
According to Location+, which is Fangraphs’ command model, Morales has a league-average ability to command the ball. That is different from control, which describes how often he walks batters. Given more MLB experience, Morales’ walk rate could drop to align more with his league-average command. Making that adjustment – as well as maintaining changeup effectiveness – will be critical to his success in the future.
Results
The back of Morales’ baseball card is excellent. He enters today sporting a 1.59 ERA in 28.1 innings pitched, and has struck out 30 batters to go along with his elite 0.99 WHIP.
His expected statistics, however, tell a different story. Based on the quality of contact opposing batters are making, Morales has an xERA of 4.13. Batters are hitting the ball extremely hard against him; his 11.4% opponent barrel rate is subpar, and he has struggled to coax swings on pitches outside the strike zone. Those metrics, combined with the fact that batters are pulling the ball in the air 21.4% of the time (in a hitter-friendly park, no less) paint a much less rosy picture of Morales’ performance.
Ceiling
Given $3,000,000 to sign with the Athletics in 2023, Morales has always caught the eye of evaluators. He’s currently ranked as the fourth-best prospect in the Athletics’ farm system, which is a testament to his raw arm talent. Take a look at this excerpt from his MLB Pipeline scouting report:
“Morales’ whip-like delivery produces an electric fastball that sits around 94-97 mph and can reach up to 99. His four-pitch mix also includes a slider, a changeup and a curveball, all of which appeared to be quality secondary pitches as he rapidly ascended through the Minors in his debut season.”
Given his undeniable talent and less-than-stellar control, his scouting report mentions he could end up in a reliever role. If he does remain a starter – and makes the necessary adjustments to stay at the big-league level – he has a chance to become one of the most exciting starting pitchers in baseball.
Remember to check back next week for more Under the Radar content.
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