Sneaky Second-Half Breakout Pitchers to Target in 2026 Fantasy Baseball

Players with second-half breakouts are always worth digging into in the offseason. While they are far from being locks for success the following year, they can offer draft-day value. Last week, we identified second-half hitting breakouts to target in 2026. So this week, we’ll look at some second-half pitching breakouts who could provide sneaky draft day value. Let’s get to it.

Second-Half Pitching Breakouts

Gavin Williams (SP — CLE)

Gavin Williams is coming off a nice first full season. In 167.2 innings, he finished the year with a 3.06 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 12.8% K-BB rate. The K-BB rate isn’t great, but we’ll get to that in a minute. One of the biggest drivers of Williams’ 2025 season was the addition of a sweeper to his arsenal. The pitch was an effective weapon for Williams, as it registered a 44% whiff rate and limited batters to a .181 batting average.

Williams’ solid season was also the result of an impressive second-half breakout. In his final 12 starts, he posted a sparkling 2.18 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. While luck played its part (92% LOB%), Williams made skills gains that shouldn’t be overlooked. Most significantly, he issued fewer free passes and threw more strikes. He cut his walk rate from a bloated 13.5% in the first half to 9.2%. Williams also finished the back half of the season with a 27.6% strikeout rate, a five-point improvement from the first half. His improved performance more than doubled his K-BB rate from 9% in the first half to 18.4%.

More strikes and fewer walks are always good for fantasy purposes. But when you add more ground balls to the mix, that’s even better. Williams induced grounders at a 48.9% clip in the second half, up seven points from the first half. And while the in-season batted ball gains are great to see, it’s worth noting that grounders have trended up for Williams overall. His ground ball rate has increased from 38.1% in 2023 to 44.7% in 2025.

There’s some risk with Williams as walks have been his Achilles’ heel (career 11% walk rate). But an expanded arsenal, combined with strikeout and batted ball gains, is tough to ignore at his current 150 ADP.

Shane Smith (SP — CWS)

If you didn’t notice Shane Smith’s second-half breakout, you’re likely not alone. After all, Smith was likely a pitcher non grata after he closed out the first half by allowing at least five earned runs in four of his final five starts. His poor performances led to an elevated 4.26 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in the first half, with a terrible 11.7% K-BB rate over 86.2 innings.

Fortunately for Smith, his rookie season turned out to be a tale of two halves. He allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his 11 second-half starts, with much of his success stemming from an increased strikeout rate. Indeed, Smith’s 26.8% strikeout rate was a five-point bump from the start of the year — and was backed by an improved swinging-strike rate (12.8%). Ultimately, Smith’s strikeout gains fueled a much-improved 18% K-BB rate, and he closed out the season with a tidy 3.17 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across 59.2 innings.

Smith isn’t flashy, and he won’t get a ton of run support. But his fastball is the backbone of his arsenal, and it has a run value in the 99th percentile. If Smith continues to throw more punchouts, he could shape up as a difference maker in 2026 drafts.

Quinn Priester (SP — MIL)

Quinn Priester was a surprising breakout arm in 2025. Signed off the scrap heap from Boston early in the season, he finished as Milwaukee’s second-best starter behind Freddy Peralta. Not too shabby.

Priester didn’t put up terrible numbers in the first half, but it was the second half where he really excelled. He registered a friendly 3.01 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 15.7% K-BB across 68.2 innings. His K-BB rate doesn’t jump off the page, but it’s light-years better than the 10.2% rate he posted in the first half. Priester moved the K-BB needle by…you guessed it, throwing more strikes and issuing fewer walks. He upped his strikeout rate from 18.8% in the first half to 22.1%, and trimmed his walk rate a couple of points to 6.4%.

As a groundball pitcher, Priester has never been a big strikeout guy. But the move from 7.11 K/9 in the first half to 8.13 K/9 is encouraging, especially since he carried a 9.4 K/9 throughout the minors. If Priester can make another jump in the strikeout department, watch out. More punchies + a career 55.7% ground ball rate + a strong defense at his back = fantasy goodness. I’m more than willing to take a shot on Priester at pick 280 this draft season.

Mike Burrows (SP — HOU)

It was a pretty underwhelming start for Mike Burrows after he joined the Pirates’ rotation in mid-May last year. He allowed a bunch of loud contact in his first 10 appearances (nine starts), and ended the first half with an ugly 4.83 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and 13.7% K-BB rate across 41 innings. However, Burrows flipped the switch and emerged as a new pitcher following the All-Star break.

Simply put, Burrows’ second-half breakout derived from less hard contact and more ground balls. He gave up fewer barrels and cut his hard-hit rate from an elevated 45.5% to 39.2%. Most impressively, Burrows generated ground balls at a 45.9% clip, nearly a 10-point jump from the start of the season. And if that wasn’t enough, he buoyed those gains with both an improved walk rate (6.4%) and swinging-strike rate (12.8%) to close out the year. Burrows ended the second half with an impressive 3.27 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 18.7% K-BB over 55 innings.

There’s a lot to like about Burrows moving forward, especially if his adjustments stick. Plus, he inherits more run support in Houston and should benefit from their pitching staff. Burrows is a no-brainer in drafts this year with his ADP sitting just inside pick 300.