Outfield Busts for 2026 Fantasy Baseball

If we want to be competitive in our fantasy baseball leagues, we need to extract as much value as possible from each draft pick. That means minimizing the number of overvalued players — or busts — on our rosters is key each draft season. With that in mind, this article identifies some outfield busts for 2026 who are being selected before pick 200. While these players offer intriguing upside, they also bring significant risk to the fantasy table that could jeopardize profit at their current draft price.

On the flip side, if you’re interested in some underrated outfielders this draft season, be sure to check out my previous article on outfield sleepers for 2026.

Outfield Busts for 2026

(ADP is pulled from Feb. 1 – Feb. 26 NFBC Draft Champions)

Byron Buxton (OF — MIN)

ADP: 88.23

It’s all about health with Byron Buxton. When on the field, his elite power and speed can transform fantasy lineups. We saw that play out for the first time in 2025 when Buxton logged a career-high 542 plate appearances. In that 126-game stretch, he racked up 35 homers and 24 steals while driving in 83 runs.

Unfortunately, staying on the field has been a challenge for the outfielder. Since entering the league in 2015, Buxton has reached the 100-game mark only three times, posing a significant health risk at his draft price. While we should take gambles in our drafts, taking them inside the top 100 picks can be costly if things go sideways.

It’s possible that Buxton plays another 100+ games again this season. And if he does, he’ll reward fantasy managers who take a shot on him. But it’s also unwise to ignore his checkered health history at his current draft cost. Buxton is the ultimate high-risk/high-reward candidate this draft season. Tread carefully.

Oneil Cruz (OF — PIT)

ADP: 113.48

On the surface, Oneil Cruz’s 20 dingers and 38 steals in 2025 sure look pretty. But the shine quickly wears off. Cruz also carried a Mendoza Line batting average, struck out at a 32% clip, and finished with an 86 wRC+ across those 544 plate appearances. Additionally, Cruz fell into a strong-side platoon role to end the season, posting a brutal .400 OPS and 18 wRC+ against lefties on the year. Woof.

Cruz has top-notch speed, and his power metrics are impressive. He posted barrel rates above 15.5% for back-to-back seasons to go with 100th percentile bat speed. However, his home run potential is capped by elevated ground balls and poor contact rates. Combine that with a subpar batting average and a possible platoon role, and Cruz could end up as one of the biggest outfield busts for 2026 at his draft price.

Luis Robert Jr. (OF — NYM)

ADP: 121.74

Luis Robert Jr. is another player with an extensive injury history and a pricey ADP. Outside of a career-best 2023 season where he slashed .264/.315/.542 with 38 dingers and 20 steals across 595 plate appearances, Robert hasn’t logged more than 110 games since 2021. Additionally, his power has tapered off. In the past two seasons, Robert posted a sub-.400 SLG, while carrying a batting average below the .225 mark.

Much of Robert’s fantasy value will stem from his legs moving forward. He stole a combined 56 bases in the last two years and should be able to bag another 25 steals in 2026. Certainly, that’s nothing to sneeze at. But when those steals come with mid- to high-teens power and a mediocre batting average, you’re not getting a lot of bang for your ADP buck. Let someone else take a gamble on Robert this draft season.

Noelvi Marte (3B/OF — CIN)

ADP: 147.42

Noelvi Marte had a solid 2025, slashing .263/.300/.448 with 14 home runs and 10 steals across 90 games. The pop and speed are nice to see, but we shouldn’t be so quick to prorate those numbers for a full season. For starters, Marte doesn’t have a ton of big league experience. Injuries and a PED suspension have limited him to a combined 191 games (725 plate appearances) across three seasons.

Additionally, Marte’s underlying numbers don’t fully support his 2025 results. His quality of contact and plate discipline metrics were average at best. He also has a tendency to chase pitches outside the zone. Sure, Marte’s dual eligibility is nice. But a lack of experience, combined with an average skillset, isn’t a profile we should target inside the top 150 picks. Marte is likely to disappoint at his ADP this season.

Chandler Simpson (OF — TBR)

ADP: 176.16

We all know Chandler Simpson has wheels. He was among the league leaders in steals last season, going 44-for-56 on the basepaths across 441 plate appearances. He also helped out fantasy managers with a .295 batting average. But that’s where the fantasy goodness ends. Simpson also brought no power to the table, finishing 2025 with a goose egg in home runs and a paltry 26 RBI.

Most concerning is Simpson’s defense. He registered a -5 Outs Above Average last year, which ranked in the 11th percentile. And despite hitting .285 and piling up 19 steals in 22 attempts over his first 35 games last year, the Rays demoted Simpson for his terrible defensive play. There’s no reason to think they won’t do the same again this year if Simpson continues to struggle, especially since the team signed multiple outfielders this offseason.

In general, it’s risky to depend on one player for a large portion of your stolen base totals. And betting on one who has questionable defensive skills and is already dealing with hamstring tightness this spring is something you should avoid altogether.

For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.