As we approach one-third of the way through the fantasy baseball season, we are starting to get a glimpse of who is overvalued and undervalued based on the cost to acquire their services in drafts or auctions this spring. Some performances have exceeded expectations, while others have fallen behind. And time is running out to change their fortunes.
Value is an ever-changing target, but we do have a snapshot in time to look at how we valued them in our drafts this spring. With about 50 games played for each team this season, it’s a good time to look at who is performing how we hoped, and who is falling behind.
This weekly piece will look at the past seven days of fantasy baseball performances to see who should be considered overvalued and undervalued going forward. When necessary, I will reference the Fantrax top 400 rotisserie rankings for the 2026 fantasy baseball season.
More great Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire | Weekly SP Rankings | Pitching Streamers | Two-Start Pitchers | Lineup Analysis | MLB Injury Report | Rookie Report | Advanced Stats | Under the Radar | Overvalued & Undervalued | Bullpen Report
Fantasy Baseball’s Most Undervalued Players
(Stats are up to date as of May 25)
Kyle Harrison (SP – MIL)
After Tuesday night, do you care to take a guess as to who is second in the NL in ERA behind only Shohei Ohtani? If you guessed Kyle Harrison, congratulations! He allowed zero runs to the St. Louis Cardinals across six innings, lowering his season ERA to just 1.57.
He almost has enough innings now to qualify for the ERA title, and already has racked up six wins in just eight weeks. We have heard plenty about Ohtani, Christopher Sanchez, and even teammate Jacob Misiorowski this season. But rarely does Kyle Harrison get the same love.
He has over 11 strikeouts per nine innings, a walk rate of under three batters per nine innings, and an expected ERA of 2.89. So all signs point to this being real. At 24 years old, Harrison hasn’t even hit his prime years yet, but he already looks like an NL ace this season.
Jonathan Aranda (1B – TBR)
The collection of seven players who already have at least 40 RBI this season is a weird list. You would probably get Matt Olson and maybe Jordan Walker. But would you guess Andy Pages, CJ Abrams, and Liam Hicks? I bet it would take you a LONG time to get to Jonathan Aranda, but he is one of the seven.
He has been in a production spot in the productive Rays’ lineup all season and drove in his 41st run on Tuesday to go along with nine home runs and a .278 average after three hits against the Orioles yesterday. Aranda recently finished a stretch where he had hits in 16 of his first 22 games in May, and he appears to be getting stronger as the season goes along.
The 28-year-old first baseman has a career-high walk rate this season to go along with an elite hard-hit rate (44%) and barrel rate (11.1%). All of his expected statistics back up this strong start, so for those who drafted Aranda late in spring drafts, enjoy reaping the benefits all season.
Fantasy Baseball’s Most Overvalued Players
Riley Greene (OF – DET)
If you are a power-hitting outfielder with just four home runs, shouldn’t you be in line for positive regression? Well, the discouraging fact about Riley Greene this year is that he has struggled with power this season despite some exceptional luck and success in all other aspects of his hitting. That’s not a sustainable combination.
Greene is hitting .311/.404/.451 this season, but has the highest BABIP in the league at .438. He is more than 20 points higher than the next-closest batter (Nick Kurtz). Greene is also 85 points above his career average in that department. Because of the high number, he is racking up runs (30) and RBI (24), but something has to give.
Greene also strikes out over 27% of the time and has a barrel rate that has dropped by over four percentage points since 2025. If you were hoping for a home run surge from Greene soon, that could still come, but the numbers suggest his average and OBP should drop soon.
Brandon Marsh (OF – PHI)
Please don’t get enamored with the .318/.349/.475 line to start the season for Brandon Marsh. He has a .385 BABIP, which ranks as the fifth-highest mark in the league through the first two months of 2026. In anyone is due for a crash back down to earth, it’s Marsh.
Despite a decent 22% strikeout rate, Marsh is only walking 4.7% of the time, and hasn’t improved in any of his power metrics. His barrel rate, exit velocity, and launch angle are all down from last season. His bat speed hasn’t improved from 2025, and his hard-hit rate is also about the same as last season.
Marsh’s groundballs are up this season, his flyballs are down, and his expected statistics tell the tale that this is a fairytale that doesn’t have a happy ending. His expected batting average is 30 points below where he is now. And his expected slugging percentage is almost a full 40 points below where he stands here at the end of May.
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