Fantasy Baseball: Pitching Risers and Fallers

When determining who to add to this list or risers and fallers, I look at the rankings based on a standard 5×5 league. The list is based on where the player ranks today, using their production from the start of the season. We compare this to how they ranked from the start of the season to ten days ago.

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I explain this because you may see a name here whose last start was a train wreck, but over a 10-day period, he still moved up the Fantrax rankings.

The fantasy baseball landscape is shifting rapidly as several young arms make key mechanical and arsenal adjustments. Over the last 10 days, these five pitchers have seen their stock rise significantly in standard leagues.

Pitching Risers and Fallers

RISERS

MacKenzie Gore (SP, TEX) – The number one riser this week, Gore’s integration into the Texas rotation has unlocked a higher tier of performance. His last two turns included a brilliant scoreless appearance on May 29. In addition, his season ERA settled at 3.96 alongside a 1.19 WHIP. The catalyst is a distinct velocity spike. His four-seamer jumped from a 94.1 mph baseline earlier this spring to a crisp 95.3 mph average over the past 10 days. This added velocity has optimized his secondary pitches, driving an increase in his opponent chase rate (O-Swing%) to 30.1% and a 24.6% whiff rate.

Sustainability: Sustainable. The elevated baseline velocity combined with his deep extension, creates a highly stable foundation for front-line fantasy usage.

Rank: 134     Prior Rank: 290   Rostered: 97%

Sean Burke (SP, CHW) – Burke has quietly stabilized the White Sox rotation, logging a 3.46 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP across his last six starts. This was highlighted by a one-run performance against Detroit on May 31. His recent 10-day surge stems from a clear tactical pivot. Burke abandoned his change-up to focus on a high-spin 90.1 mph cutter and an 86.8 mph slider. This shift has completely suppressed hard contact, dragging his Statcast average exit velocity down to an elite 87.9 mph.

Sustainability: Not Really. While his 60:18 K:BB over 65.1 innings is solid, a 51% zone rate on his fastball invites damage once opponents adjust to his new cutter-heavy sequencing.

Rank: 172     Prior Rank: 283   Rostered: 67%

Cade Cavalli (SP, WSH) – Cavalli is flashing high-end fantasy upside following his return to Washington’s rotation, showing consistent workload progression over his last three outings (7.0, 6.0, and 5.0 innings). In his June 1 start against Miami, he fanned six over five frames, This brought his season strikeout total to 74 in 64.2 innings. Cavalli’s ascent is driven by excellent execution of his power arsenal, dropping his hard-hit rate below 36% over the last 10 days despite a 1.42 season WHIP.

Sustainability: Sustainable. Although his current 3.62 ERA coincides with minor control issues (3 BB against Miami), his natural ability to generate depth and length makes him a reliable fantasy asset.

Rank: 198     Prior Rank: 267   Rostered: 83%

Kai-Wei Teng (SP/RP, HOU) – Teng has transitioned smoothly into Houston’s starting mix, posting a stellar 1.56 ERA over 17.1 innings in May. His best performance came on May 23 against the Cubs, where he threw 6.0 scoreless frames with six strikeouts. The underlying data reveals stabilization in his plate discipline metrics. His sweeping slider has generated an elite 31.8% swinging-strike rate (SwStr%) over the last 10 days.

Sustainability: Just a blip. Teng’s ERA masks severe control volatility. He walked four batters in his May 29 start against Milwaukee. In addition, he has issued 15 free passes over 37.0 innings, pointing to a looming WHIP correction.

Rank: 198     Prior Rank: 267   Rostered: 83%

Ben Brown (SP/RP, CHC) – Brown has emerged as a premium fantasy weapon, carrying a 1.92 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP across 51.2 innings. Helping him move up the ranks was his May 30 start against the Cardinals. He dominated over 7.0 innings, yielding just one run while striking out six. Statcast profiles show Brown is entirely neutralizing hard contact, limiting opponents to a 6.9% barrel rate and forcing a 51.5% ground ball rate. This success follows an altered pitch mix featuring a heavy 96.7 mph power sinker and a sharp 87.2 mph curveball.

Sustainability: Sustainable. Brown’s 26.4% strikeout rate and elite 7.5% walk rate are fully supported by a 2.90 expected ERA (xERA), cementing his status as a legitimate standard-league star.

Rank: 60     Prior Rank: 124   Rostered: 80%

Three risers rostered in less than 50% of Fantrax leagues

Shane Drohan (SP, TB) – Drohan’s standard league value is climbing after a 10-day stretch logging a 1.50 ERA and 0.83 WHIP, driven by a 1.5 mph uptick on his four-seam fastball (up to 94.2 mph). His swinging-strike rate (SwStr%) was boosted to a career-high 13.2%. Expect this breakout to be sustainable.

Rank: 193     Prior Rank: 258   Rostered: 31%

Martín Pérez (SP, SD) – A definite riser. Pérez has surged via structural contact suppression, posting consecutive quality starts with a 0.52 WHIP over the last 10 days by increasing his cutter usage by 12%. This lowered his Statcast average exit velocity down to 86.1 mph and makes this sudden elite fantasy run highly sustainable.

Rank: 132     Prior Rank: 168   Rostered: 43%

Andre Pallante (SP, STL) – Pallante is riding a temporary blip after registering a 12:2 K:BB ratio over 12.0 innings, a spike fueled by a 34.5% opponent chase rate (O-Swing%) on his high-sinker mix. However, a volatile 42% hard-hit rate suggests a painful standard-league WHIP correction is looming.

Rank: 252     Prior Rank: 268   Rostered: 45%

Fallers

Shota Imanaga (SP, CHI)  – Imanaga’s stock is sliding following a May 29 beating by the Cardinals, where he yielded 5 earned runs over 5.1 innings while striking out just 2 batters. The underlying data suggests a clear regression pattern. His signature four-seam fastball usage sits heavily at 42%. At the same time, its swinging-strike rate (SwStr%) fell from 13.5% down to 9.2% over his last two outings. Opponents are adjusting to his high-spin rise. This is driving his average exit velocity up to 91.8 mph with a 12.5% barrel rate over this 10-day window. His ERA climbing to 4.37 and his K:BB ratio dropping to 2:1 in his last start, is cause for concern.

Rank: 110     Prior Rank: 59   Rostered: 99%

Ranger Suárez (SP, BOS) -Suárez posted a 10-strikeout performance on May 31, but fantasy managers are reacting to a significant spike in traffic. He allowed 4 earned runs on 8 hits and 2 walks over 5 innings against Cleveland. The core issue is hard contact. Over the past 10 days, Suárez’s hard-hit percentage spiked to 46.2%. This was up nearly 8% from his season average. His pitch mix shifted, with sinker usage climbing 5% at the expense of his changeup. The sinker averaged 91.2 mph—down 1.1 mph from early May.

Rank: 171     Prior Rank: 121   Rostered: 98%

Michael King (SP, SD) – King suffered consecutive losses on May 24 and May 30. This indicates an alarming trend in his plate discipline metrics. In his May 30 start against Washington, King labored through 6 innings, giving up 5 earned runs on 5 hits. His opponent’s chase rate (O-Swing%) plummeted from 32.1% to 24.5% over the last 10 days. This is forcing him into leverage counts. Consequently, his walk rate surged. This was underscored by a four-walk outing against Oakland. King’s average exit velocity on his sweeper jumped to 90.4 mph as hitters refused to chase out of the zone.

Rank: 86     Prior Rank: 41   Rostered: 99%

Randy Vásquez (SP, SD) – Vásquez has hit a wall over his last two turns, giving up 7 earned runs across 10 innings to the Dodgers and Phillies. His ERA has ballooned to 3.28, but his FIP sits at a concerning 4.24. The fundamental issue over the past 10 days is a complete absence of swing-and-miss utility. For instance, he struck out zero batters against Los Angeles and just 2 against Philadelphia. His overall SwStr% plummeted to a minuscule 5.1%. Hitters are squaring up his cutter (25% usage), pushing his hard-hit rate to 48.5% over this stretch.

Rank: 136     Prior Rank: 98   Rostered: 86%

Michael Wacha (SP, KC) – Wacha’s latest outing on May 31 against Texas exposed a severe vulnerability, as he was tagged for 6 earned runs on 8 hits and 4 walks across 5 innings. The veteran’s performance drop aligns with a velocity uptick. This is possibly compensating for poor movement. His four-seam fastball rose from 92.1 mph to 93.4 mph, but yielded a 14.3% barrel rate over the last 10 days. Hitters are sitting on his changeup, which saw its SwStr% drop below 10%. Combined with a 5:4 K:BB ratio in his last start, Wacha’s recent struggles represent a structural decline that is likely to persist.

Rank: 84     Prior Rank: 50   Rostered: 97%