Attacking the Green!: 2026 U.S. Open Stats Breakdown and Best Bets

Welcome back, golf fans. The toughest test in golf has arrived as the U.S. Open heads to historic Shinnecock Hills Golf Club. One of the toughest tests in championship golf, Shinnecock has a reputation for exposing every weakness, demanding elite ball striking, precise course management, and the patience to survive when scoring conditions become brutal.

This year will be the sixth time Shinnecock Hills has hosted the U.S. Open, going all the way back to 1896. Tough is an understatement here as Brooks Koepka won the 2018 U.S. Open here, with a score of +1, and there have only been four players to finish even par or better over the last four U.S. Opens here!

In this article, we will preview the course, look at the top stats in my model, and identify some of the top bets on my betcard this week.

The Course: Shinnecock Hills Golf Club

Shinnecock Hills has a 135-year history and is annually ranked as a Top 5 golf course in the entire world. As I mentioned above, Shinnecock Hills is one of the toughest tests in golf, and this year will be no different, as even par should once again be a very good score over four days. The links-style course forces accuracy both off the tee and on approach to avoid the tall, very penal rough and abundance of fairway and greenside bunkers. Shots that are even a little off can be severely punished with double bogies or worse!

The Par 70 setup has four par 3’s, including the 252-yard 2nd hole that can play anywhere from 200 to 265 yards depending on the marker and pin placement. Of the 12 par 4’s, there are two that come in under 400 yards, but don’t expect low scoring based on distance. The first hole is 394 yards but is one of the toughest fairways to hit on the course, and golfers averaged just 250 yards off the tee in 2018. The other short par 4 is the 13th hole, where the landing area gets more narrow the further you drive it, which also had golfers laying back in 2018, averaging just 236 yards off the tee. After three mid-range par 4’s, there are a whopping seven that come in over 450 yards, including four that are over 490 yards! With the laying back to ensure fairway accuracy, combined with the long-distance holes, expect a ton of long-iron approaches this week.

Stats & Trends That Matter: Finding the 2026 U.S. Open Champion

Top Stats/Trends:

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green – It takes a complete game from tee to green to make it through four days of grueling US. Open golf. It starts off the tee where I will be looking for more accuracy than distance, and those players who possess both will get a nice boost. In 2018, SG: Approach was, by far, the highest correlated Strokes Gained stat and will be huge again this week with the small greens surrounded by danger. I will also be plugging in some long iron approach proximity to my model. Next up, the GIR rate is likely going to be in the 50% range, and that means a lot of scrambling. Small mistakes around the green can be absolutely punishing. Finally, if you can find the fairway and green, it will take a hot putter to reach the top of the leaderboard.
• Major Championship/U.S. Open Form – About 20% of my overall model will include a combination of these two trends. Major championships are a completely different animal with elite fields, history, and prestige. I will also look closely at just the U.S. Open form, as well, with it being the epitome of challenging setups and difficult scoring.

Xander Schauffele (+1850 Outright / +335 Top 5 / +162 Top 10)

My betcard will start outside of the top 3 favourites this week, and leading the way is Xander Schauffele, who has proven to have an overall game that plays well at not only majors but the U.S. Open specifically. This will be his 10th U.S. Open start, and he has yet to finish worse than 14th in nine previous trips, including seven top 10’s, one of which came here at Shinnecock back in 2018. He isn’t coming in with elite form by any means, mostly due to a sub-par short game, but has still finished 12th or better in five of his last seven events. Two of those were the PGA Championship and the Masters, which gives him a streak of three straight top 10’s in majors. I like playing Xander as a ladder play this week, getting action on the outright and both the top 5 and top 10.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2450 Outright / +420 Top 5 / +200 Top 10)

Fleetwood ended 2025 finally picking up his first PGA Tour win at the Tour Championship, and it feels like there is a lot more to come. So far through 2026, he has come close multiple times, picking up seven finishes of 11th or better through 12 events, including top 5’s in two of his last four. He has gained strokes tee to green in five straight and six or more strokes tee to green in three of his last four. Statistically, Fleetwood ranks Top 10 in SG: Tee to Green on the season, is 6th in SG: Around the Green, and also has displayed an elite short game ranking 19th. His U.S. Open and Major Championship form has been very up and down but is highlighted by a runner-up finish here at Shinnecock Hills back in 2018. Like Schauffele, I will be adding Fleetwood to my betcard as a ladder bet this week.

J.J. Spaun (+6100 Outright / +405 Top 10)

The defending U.S. Open champion doesn’t seem to be getting much buzz this week. This not only has me intrigued for DFS purposes at a possible lower ownership but also has me interested from a betting perspective. First of all, he comes in with excellent form, having finished in the Top 25 in five of his last six events, including two top 10’s at signature events. He has also been tremendous tee to green, gaining three or more strokes in eight of his last 10, and is 9th in this field in SG: Tee to Green on the season. The only thing holding him back from better finishes or a win is the putter, which has been very up and down. Should he get hot with the putter this week, I think he has a shot to be one of the top value plays on the board. My favourite bet for Spaun is the top 10, but I will also sprinkle some on the longshot outright number.

Patrick Cantlay (+4500 Outright / +690 Top 5 / +315 Top 10)

Cantlay is an eight-time PGA Tour winner but has been in a drought with his last win coming at the 2022 BMW Championship. Despite not hoisting a trophy, the form is very steady coming into this year’s U.S. Open as he has top 20 finishes in five of his last six, including three top 10’s, two of which came in signature events. The stats also line up as he ranks 5th in SG: Tee to Green, 6th in SG: Approach, 5th in SG: Around the Green, 8th in par 4 scoring, and 21st in bogey avoidance over the last 24 rounds. He missed the cut by one stroke in last year’s U.S. Open at Oakmont but had finished in the top 15 in his four previous U.S. Open starts. The top 5 and top 10 markets catch my attention the most, but I will also be betting him outright in hopes of breaking the winless streak.