Under the Radar: The Anonymous Nationals Pitcher Who is an Ace

In fantasy baseball, when we identify a breakout pitcher, they often get a tremendous amount of hype, especially in a season when studs like Tarik Skubal and Gerrit Cole are injured. When a pitcher displays new skills or has changed something for the better, it usually leads to hundreds of columns talking about how they are the next big thing.

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When it comes to the Washington Nationals, there is not much talk about them beyond James Wood’s brilliance or Nassim Nunez’s stolen bases. There has been some chatter about a mini-breakout for Cade Cavalli. He has four starts with at least nine strikeouts and has thrown some gems. But through 17 starts in 2026, the breakout candidate in Washington that no one is mentioning is Foster Griffin, who has been even more dominant. So why is no one talking about him?

Washington Nationals Ace of 2026

Griffin is in his age-30 season, a time when a lot of pitchers are past their prime or have no prospect of breaking out. Griffin is unique in that he spent the last three seasons in Japan. But now, he’s a fixture in the Nationals’ rotation with 17 starts after coming over from Japan last year. He is no longer a prospect, and these are his first 17 starts ever in MLB. Despite not even being in our pitcher ranks coming into the season, Griffin could easily finish in the top 40 this year among pitchers.

Let’s dive deeper into why Foster Griffin is just as much of an ace right now in fantasy baseball as any other breakout pitcher who has been grabbing fantasy baseball headlines.

Foster Griffin’s First 17 Starts Were Very Impressive

The most immediate reason to believe in Griffin’s breakout is what he has already shown in his first 17 starts of the 2026 season, after the improvements he made in Japan. In his five most recent starts, Griffin has tossed at least five innings each game and only allowed one earned run in each game during that span while never striking out fewer than five batters.

He is having a bit of a problem with home runs (a 16.3% HR/FB rate), but that number is above league average and has regressed back to the mean in recent weeks. The fact that he has not allowed more than one earned run in any start since May 30 speaks to his incredible consistency.

Griffin has a 2.93 ERA this season and is striking out almost nine batters per nine innings (8.97). It is quite the turnaround for a pitcher who posted an 8.53 ERA and just 5.7 strikeouts per nine in 2022 before heading overseas. What is behind the success so far? What’s driving the ERA to drop by more than two-thirds? Let’s look more at his pitching profile.

Griffin’s Pitch Mix is Leaving Hitters Fooled

Foster Griffin has come almost out of nowhere, and so many aren’t familiar with his arsenal. Since he hasn’t thrown a Major League pitch in over three years, before 2026, we didn’t know if he was a one-dimensional or one-pitch, or even two-pitch pitcher. He does, however, bring a deep arsenal, including six pitches that he throws over 10% of the time. That kind of diversity keeps hitters guessing, and his 88-mile-per-hour cutter and his nasty splitter are the real moneymakers here.

The splitter has been effective at getting hitters to swing and miss. So far in 2026, that pitch has about a 110 Stuff+ rating, and overall, he has a whiff rate of around 17%. The fastball and cutter remain his bread and butter, but when he deploys the splitter, it’s often lights out for hitters.

Griffin’s slider is also above average and complements his other pitches. He has a sweeper with a lot of movement, too. Add all of the pitches up, and he is able to keep hitters fooled as to what is coming. He has a 60.5% first-pitch strike rate, and overall, he has a 29.2% CSW (called plus swinging strike rate).

Weak Contact Can Cover For Any Mistakes

What can Griffin do during a start when things like his fastball and swing-and-miss ability aren’t working? He can rely on the weak contact he creates to get out of jams. This season, his hard-hit rate is only 37.1%, a full 13 percentage points below where it was in 2022.

After debuting with a 50.1%% hard hit rate in 2022, Griffin spent three years in Japan tinkering with things and learning how to miss bats and induce soft contact. Now, he has learned to get hitters to hit the ball on the ground 44% of the time they put bat to ball.

In the month of June, Griffin’s hard contact is all the way down to 24%. Again, some home runs shouldn’t impact that perception. In fact, he was at 30.5% for the entire month of April as well. Add in all those strikeouts he piles up (he struck out nine in seven innings against Baltimore on Saturday), and this skill set looks phenomenal through 17 times on the mound.

Griffin Was Projected to Be Mediocre, But Has the Stuff to Dominate

Add up all the attributes from above, and we have an underrated ace to start the season. He remains slightly under the radar because of some missed time, and Saturday’s outing will only increase his market value. More people are starting to catch on. People have learned about Cade Cavalli, but despite these numbers, Griffin is still flying under the radar.

Washington Nationals pitchers through June 29:

Cade Cavalli: 83.1 IP, 9.61 K/9, 3.13 BB/9, 0.76 HR/9, 4.00 ERA, 4.52 xERA

Foster Griffin: 98.1 IP, 8.97 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, 1.46 HR/9, 2.93 ERA, 3.88 xERA

Projection systems are mixed on Griffin the rest of the way, but they all show one thing. Each of them believes Griffin will keep his strong walk rate and that he will strike out about eight and a half batters per nine innings.

Some project his ERA at 3.80, while others are over 4.50. That might not immediately strike you as “ace” material, but for fantasy purposes, that level of production, especially given that he was universally undrafted, can easily return top-40 starting pitcher value. If Griffin’s projected command and strikeout gains and whiff rates are real, he could outperform those forecasts by a huge margin. His xERA right now is 3.88, and that seems reasonable for the rest of the season.

Through 17 starts, it all seems to be working for him, and now he gets the Pirates next at home. Foster Griffin is the best Nationals breakout pitcher of 2026, and he is only rostered in about 89% of Fantrax leagues. Why that is not 100%, I simply do not know. Go check your waiver wire now to make sure this potential league-winner isn’t sitting out there.