As we approach two-thirds of the way through the fantasy baseball season, we now have a strong glimpse of who is overvalued and undervalued based on the cost to acquire their services in drafts or auctions this spring. Some fantasy baseball player performances have exceeded expectations, while others have fallen behind. And time is running out to change their fortunes.
Value is an ever-changing target, but we do have a snapshot in time to look at how we valued them in our drafts this spring. With about 55-60 games left for each team this season, it’s a good time to look at who is performing how we hoped, and who is falling behind.
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This weekly piece will look at the past couple of weeks of fantasy baseball performances to see who should be considered overvalued and undervalued going forward. When necessary, I will reference the Fantrax top 400 rotisserie rankings for the 2026 fantasy baseball season.
Fantasy Baseball’s Most Undervalued Players
(Stats are up to date as of July 27)
Gabriel Moreno (C – ARI)
If you aren’t relying on your catcher to prop up your team with home runs or RBI, Gabriel Moreno is the catcher you want on your roster right now. The good news is there are about 13% of Fantrax leagues where Moreno is still available. Run, don’t walk, to go pick him up if your team needs any help in the batting average category.
Moreno, overall, is hitting .310/.393/.451 with seven home runs, four steals, and 41 RBI. If Moreno had enough plate appearances to qualify, he would be fifth in the Major Leagues in batting average. Also, there are only three catchers with at least four steals this season, and Moreno joins Hunter Goodman and Ivan Herrera as the leaders.
In addition to the counting stats, Moreno clearly is seeing the ball the best of his career. He has a 12% walk rate and just a 15% strikeout rate this season, and his .370 wOBA is behind only Dillon Dingler and Hunter Goodman, who are fantasy superstars this year. Moreno is perhaps the hottest he has been all season right now, and has nine hits in his last six games, while also adding nine RBI in the same timeframe.
Jonathan Aranda (1B – TBR)
There are fewer than 20 players in Major League Baseball who have at least 65 RBI this season (18 to be exact), and it is an interesting and diverse list. You know Yordan Alvarez, Ben Rice, Jordan Walker, and Pete Alonso, among others. But would you guess Andy Pages, Alec Burleson, and even Jonathan Aranda? Aranda is also one of just seven players to have 65 RBI and at least a .280 batting average.
He has been in a run-producing spot in the productive Rays’ lineup all season and actually drove in his 65th run on July 20th, but has been shut out in that department since that game, so he is stuck on 65. That won’t last long, and Aranda will presumably drive in plenty of runs the rest of the season. Aranda recently finished a stretch where he had four hits in his last three games, and is seeing his stroke come back around after a slump in mid-July.
The 28-year-old first baseman has a walk rate this season that is almost two percentage points better than his career average, to go along with an elite hard-hit rate (44%) and strong barrel rate (10.3%). All of his expected statistics back up this strong start (including an expected slugging percentage that is 20 points above his actual number), so for those who have utilized Aranda as their first or second baseman this season, you have gotten one of the best values in the draft.
Fantasy Baseball’s Most Overvalued Players
William Contreras (C – MIL)
For Williams Contreras, it seems like we will always be chasing those magical 2023-2024 seasons. Over those two years, Contreras hit 40 home runs, had a .285 batting average, and had a slugging percentage just over .460. In 2025, he slumped down a bit, and while it appears a mini-rebound is happening in 2026, the last month or so has shown an unusable side of Contreras for fantasy baseball.
In the last 30 days, Contreras has a slash line of .165/.226/.235 with just one home run and only a 5% walk rate. He has a WAR of -0.5 in that time and has been one of the least valuable players in baseball, all things considered (the worst WAR in that timeframe is -0.6). At 28 years old, we would think Contreras would be in his prime years, but he has really slowed down in July, perhaps because he has played in 99 of Milwaukee’s 106 games heading into Tuesday night.
William Contreras was taken around pick 56 overall in spring drafts, normally as the second catcher off the board. Both he and Cal Raleigh have not come close to meeting expectations (Contreras has just 10 home runs and 51 runs this season), while managers who went down to players like Ben Rice, Drake Baldwin, and Ivan Herrera are getting much more value.
Brandon Marsh (OF – PHI)
If you look at Brandon Marsh’s season-long numbers, you will immediately be impressed. You’ll see a .283/.324/.463 line plus 16 home runs and nine steals this season. However, he has a .356 BABIP, which ranks as the seventh-highest mark in the league entering Tuesday night’s games. He has been a valuable fantasy asset all season, but there are recent signs that his season is starting to crash back down to earth.
Overall, Marsh has a 27% strikeout rate, but he is only walking 5.5% of the time, and hasn’t improved in any of his power metrics. In fact, his hard-hit rate and his average exit velocity are down from his 2025 season when he had just 11 home runs in 133 games. His bat speed hasn’t improved from 2025, and his chase rate outside the zone is now way above last season.
Marsh’s groundballs are now coming at a higher rate than his flyballs and his line drives, and his expected statistics all show that a crash of some kind is coming. In fact, the crash may have already started, but his strong start is masking his current poor performance overall. Marsh is hitting just .170/.240/.318 over the last 30 days, and that is accompanied by a 31% strikeout rate.
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