Some of the American League’s biggest power hitters have cooled off as the summer has gotten hotter in August. Yordan Alvarez hasn’t homered (entering Monday night). Neither has Bobby Witt Jr. nor Gunnar Henderson. Ben Rice and Colson Montgomery have only one bomb each. But one player who hasn’t had to worry about power this month or anytime in the second half is Wilyer Abreu. He leads the AL in home runs in August (four) and over the last 30 days (nine) and is part of a barrage of Boston power that has sent their team record into the stratosphere lately.
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Wilyer Abreu: Fantasy Baseball Under the Radar Power
Along with many other Boston Red Sox hitters, Abreu has been crushing the ball during one of the best streaks from any team this season. Will it continue for the last six weeks? Time will tell, but for now, fantasy managers are reaping the rewards for being patient with Abreu.
The former Venezuelan prospect entered the season following a solid breakout in 2025, in which he hit 22 home runs and drove in 69 runs while posting a .469 slugging percentage in just 115 games. The question was, would his strong underlying power numbers remain, or were those just flukes? In fantasy baseball, identifying players whose under-the-hood stats can predict their power is one of the best ways to gain an advantage, and Abreu’s power has remained strong in 2026, while his plate discipline overall has improved as well.
Elite Barrel Rates
One of the biggest reasons Abreu looks like a great, consistent fantasy power source is his elite barrel rate. Entering 2026, he had posted a barrel rate of 12.3% in 2025, according to Statcast. In 2026, it sits at 12.9%, once again putting him well above the league average as he enjoys a slight increase over last year. Barrel rate is one of the strongest predictive measurements for present and future home runs because it measures how often a hitter combines an ideal launch angle with strong exit velocity.
His average exit velocity is about 90 mph, while his hard-hit rate is above 43.3% after sitting at 44.9% in 2025. Those are significant numbers for a 27-year-old hitter who is firmly establishing himself as a consistent Major League contributor. Abreu already possesses the underlying power skills necessary to be a major source of home runs, and he has shown that those skills can translate into legitimate game power.
A .284 BABIP has helped keep Abreu’s batting average at a decent clip in 2026, but even with a .255 average, the power foundation is already strong enough to make him an extremely useful fantasy outfielder. More importantly, his recent production suggests that the batting average and overall offensive numbers could still have room to improve.
Improved Swing Helps Power Potential
Abreu’s improved swing this season is another major reason to believe in his power potential. Statcast tells us he has continued to produce quality contact, with an average launch angle around 19 degrees in 2026 and a sweet-spot percentage around 36%. That is the exact type of batted-ball profile fantasy managers want from a power hitter. His 2026 Statcast profile also places him in the 84th percentile in barrel rate and 87th percentile in expected slugging rate.
It has also come with an improvement in his strikeout rate. Abreu struck out 24.2% of the time in 2025, but that number has dropped to around 21% this season while his walk rate has remained around 10% (it was 9.6% in 2025). That combination is particularly encouraging because Abreu is not simply selling out for power. He is making better decisions at the plate and striking out less while continuing to hit the ball hard.
In many ways, Wilyer Abreu has become a model of the modern power hitter. He has a strong barrel rate, excellent hard-hit percentage, a favorable launch angle and above-average bat speed, while also showing improving plate discipline. His average bat speed is around 74 mph for the third straight season, placing him in a strong position among Major League hitters.
Room For More Down the Stretch?
Perhaps the most exciting aspect of Abreu’s fantasy season is that his current production may not show all he could do for the rest of 2026. He is just 27 years old and is still relatively early in his Major League career. There is still growth happening even with a 22-home-run season already behind him, and he is projected to get to 25 this season.
The recent numbers are particularly encouraging. In his last 30 days, Abreu has hit .213/.308/.551 with nine home runs, 20 RBI and 19 runs scored in 104 plate appearances. While the batting average has been low during that stretch, his .337 ISO and .354 wOBA show just how much damage he is doing when he makes contact. Even more encouraging is his .413 expected wOBA, which is significantly higher than his actual .354 mark during that stretch. His 124 wRC+ over the same period also shows that the recent production has been legitimately valuable, rather than simply a handful of home runs carrying an otherwise poor stretch.
That .164 BABIP over the last 30 days is another reason to believe Abreu’s recent numbers could get even better. It’s the third-lowest mark in the AL over the last month. If more of those balls in play begin falling for hits, the batting average can rise quickly without requiring any change in his power profile. The fact that he has hit nine home runs during a stretch in which his BABIP has been so low shows just how much power is currently carrying his fantasy production.
Abreu has also remained a productive run producer for Boston. His 2026 season line currently sits at 20 home runs, 64 runs, 63 RBI and seven stolen bases, along with a .255/.330/.460 slash line. FanGraphs gives him a 114 wRC+, meaning he has been comfortably above league average offensively. His expected numbers also remain strong, with a .353 xwOBA compared to a .340 actual wOBA.
Also benefiting him is the offensive environment around him. Hitting in the middle of the Red Sox lineup gives Abreu opportunities to accumulate both runs and RBI, and his combination of power and plate discipline makes him a particularly useful fantasy player when he is locked into the lineup.
Fantasy managers sometimes focus exclusively on batting average and plate skills when evaluating breakout candidates, but players who can contribute 25-plus home runs with strong run production and some stolen bases become extremely valuable across all formats. Abreu has seven steals already and will likely reach a career-high before the year ends.
For the remainder of 2026, Abreu is exactly the type of player worth targeting in a move before the market catches up, especially if the batting average or BABIP remains relatively low. The combination of a 12.4 percent barrel rate, strong hard-hit data, quality launch angle, improving strikeout rate, and raw strength gives him the statistical profile of a player capable of being a major power contributor over the rest of the season and the fantasy playoffs.
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