Starting Pitcher Barometer, Week 5: Kenta Maeda Me Frown

My goodness, ladies and gentlemen. It isn’t even May yet and already we’re down so many pitchers that I’m looking at Lance Lynn and considering him for the back end of the list. He has a 6.51 ERA. A 3.87 FIP, but still, a 6.51 ERA. SP80-100 is basically warm bodies that you can plug in and pray they don’t actively kill your ratios. There are a lot of names that dropped off the list this week due to injury. Some lengthy, some not so much, some whose timetables remain to be determined. That means new blood on the list! Let’s rock!

Starting Pitcher Barometer

The Risers

• Carlos Rodon, CHW (+10) – I have loved Rodon ever since the day he was drafted. Unfortunately for me, that has meant several years of dynasty league and single-season heartbreak as he has largely let me down. He has struggled with control of his wicked slider and huge fastball from the left side, but his biggest issue has been a lack of third pitch. He has tried to work in a changeup in recent years, but it has just been terrible. Do you know what a great pitch is, though? His slider! Let’s throw that more, what do you say?! He has jacked that slider usage up to 39% this year, with a previous career high of 30% way back in his debut season in 2015. Even the changeup is getting more whiffs this year at 18%, leading to a career-high 12.5% swinging strike rate. He will still walk too many batters and run his pitch count up too early to go deep into games, but the strikeouts help make up for that.
• Domingo German (+14) – I had first questioned German’s long-term role as a starter in 2019. I then questioned his viability as a starter with a high walk rate and a limited repertoire. I’m starting to run out of questions. German misses a ton of bats and has proven his changeup to be a viable third offering. His walk rate has continued to trend in the right direction and now sits at a very acceptable 2.81 BB/9. I’m still not ready to rocket him up the board just yet since he’s had an incredibly easy slate of opponents and doesn’t pitch deep into games. Still, I’d be rolling with him everywhere right now.

The Fallers

• Kenta Maeda, LAD (-29) – Kenta, you Maeda me frown this week. 27.2 innings of a 5.20 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP were not what I was hoping for when I pegged you as a sharp investment this preseason. His peripherals aren’t even pointing towards positive regression. His changeup was great last year, so you would think that its increased usage would have led to greater results. While the changeup has still largely been effective, his walk rate has ballooned to 4.23 BB/9, a career-low mark. Weirdly, his zone% is roughly in line with 2018, and his first-pitch strike rate is an elite 70.6%! His average exit velocity is also second base in baseball at 82.2 MPH (min. 50 BBE), so he isn’t getting crushed as often as the ERA would lead you to believe. As bad as everything looks right now, I’d be buying him low…if he wasn’t on the Dodgers. They will pull the plug on anyone at any time. He could get sent to the bullpen next week, it’s that risky. I’d try to hold on to him. I just can’t help but feel like better things are coming.
• Michael Pineda (-17) – Pineda started off strong, tossing nine innings with just five hits allowed, two earned, two walks, and 10 K’s over his first two starts. That’s when cruise ship Pineda ran aground. Over his last three starts, he’s allowed 13 runs over 15 innings with just 10 K’s and three walks. While one rough start came against Houston, another implosion was against a poor Toronto lineup that he should’ve rolled over. With a heavy fly ball profile, he’s going to be – wait for it – homer prone. His control is on point, but he’s not missing bats like he did in New York. His velocity is creeping back to where it used to be, so that is encouraging. Maybe a few more sliders and changeups – both of which are netting 15% whiffs – will help him increase his K/9.

The Newcomers

• Mike Foltynewicz (SP35) – I was upset when Folty went down with his injury in the preseason not because I owned him, but rather because I was off of him at his ADP. I wanted others to spend that pick on him at a spot I deemed too early. He far outperformed his peripherals last year with a strikeout rate I wasn’t fully sold on. Now that he’s coming back, all that is rather moot. I do expect him to be a solid fantasy 3/4 the rest of the way, but don’t expect him to carry your team like he did last season.
• Jerad Eickhoff (SP83) – I was into Eickhoff before it was cool, much like JNCO jeans. Nobody had any idea why I was wearing those weird, giant pants in 1990. Story of my life. No, I liked Eickhoff back in 2016 when he tossed 197.1 innings of 3.65 ERA ball. It was the ensuing 4.71 ERA in 2017 that scarred me. Well, with Nick Pivetta completely wetting the bed early on, it’s Eickhoff’s time to shine once again as he slips into the rotation. He’s throwing more sliders than ever at 24%, which is a nice development. He tends to get into trouble with walks and homers though, and he pitches in a tough park. It doesn’t take much to get into the back end of the list at this point, so here he is, but I’m reserving any enthusiasm.
• Drew Pomeranz (SP87) – The Pom Pom is back! After the worst 2018 you could possibly imagine, Pomeranz has had a resurgent five starts for the *checks Fangraphs page* Giants, apparently. His peripherals aren’t sold on his current 3.65 ERA and neither am I, but he’s missing bats (10.22 K/9) and not walking the farm as he did in 2018. He’s still 93% fastballs/curveballs, which is not a high-ceiling repertoire. AT&T, or Oracle, or whatever that park is called these days masks a lot of deficiencies, so he has that on his side, and getting out of the AL East helps. Also just being alive and pitching in MLB gets you on the back-end of the top 100 this week.
• Erik Swanson (SP89) – A former Yankees farmhand of some note, Swanson has now made a pair of starts with the Mariners with mixed results. He locates his fastball well, but it lacks plus velocity, and neither his slider nor changeup are true swing-and-miss offerings. The sum could shape up to be better than the parts, though. He’s worth a look as a streaming option this weekend at home against the Rangers.

The Top 100 Starting Pitchers

Dropped Off The List

Matt Shoemaker (injury), Kyle Freeland (injury), Michael Wacha (injury), Nathan Eovaldi (injury), Aaron Sanchez (injury), Julio Urias (bullpen), Touki Toussaint (minors), Corbin Burnes (minors), Zack Godley (performance), Trent Thornton (performance).

Nathan Dokken is a member of the FSWA and has had his work featured in numerous books and magazines. He has also appeared on many podcasts and radio shows and hosts the Nasty Cast and Fantrax Dynasty Baseball podcasts. His written work can be found exclusively at Fantrax HQ, and his personal thoughts and opinions can be found on Twitter @NathanDokken.

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