Fantasy Baseball Overvalued and Undervalued – Week 3

It’s tough to call any fantasy baseball players overvalued or undervalued, this early into a new season. No team has played more than 20 games, and sample sizes are tiny compared to what we normally need to make long-term judgments on players.

However, based on early performance, team usage, and changes to a player’s approach or mechanics, it’s already clear some players were undervalued in fantasy baseball draft rooms while others appear to have been overvalued.

More great Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire | Weekly SP Rankings | Pitching Streamers | Two-Start Pitchers | Lineup Analysis | MLB Injury Report | Rookie Report | Advanced Stats | Under the Radar | Overvalued & Undervalued | Bullpen Report

This weekly piece will look at the past seven days of fantasy baseball performances to see who should be considered overvalued and undervalued going forward. When necessary, I will reference the Fantrax top 400 rotisserie rankings for the 2026 fantasy baseball season.

(Stats are up to date as of April 14)

Undervalued Players

Yandy Diaz (1B – TBR)

Díaz has quietly been one of the most productive hitters in baseball to start 2026, posting a .363 batting average through his first 15 games while also showing elite plate discipline with eight walks against just three strikeouts. What makes him underrated is that this production aligns with his elite plate discipline profile. He has high contact and strong OBP skills, but he’s still rarely thought of as an elite bat.

Despite not being a traditional power hitter and only having more than 20 home runs twice, his ability to consistently get on base and avoid strikeouts gives him significant real-life and fantasy value, especially in OBP formats. His .363 average clearly isn’t sustainable at that level, but his approach shows it should never drop below about .285.

Xavier Edwards (2B/SS – MIA)

Xavier Edwards has been one of the biggest early-season surprises in 2026, hitting around .360 and consistently appearing near the top of the league in average, on-base ability, and runs. His speed and contact ability are driving that success, and while some regression might be coming, the underlying skill set suggests he can remain a high-average, high-runs, high-steals contributor.

Because he lacks traditional power, he’s often overlooked because of low home runs and RBI numbers. But in categories like batting average, runs, and steals, he provides a unique and valuable skillset that is frequently undervalued. He has started slowly on the basepaths (two steals), but has 27 and 31 in the last two seasons, so there is no reason to panic yet.

Riley O’Brien (RP – STL)

Riley O’Brien has now secured the Cardinals’ last four saves and looks to be the ascending top option in the bullpen. He was also able to nail down a win in extra innings on Tuesday. JoJo Romero and Ryne Stanek have established traditional setup roles, but O’Brien looks to be the man for saves right now. Through nine appearances in 2026, O’Brien has a 0.00 ERA, 0.43 WHIP, and nine strikeouts in 9.1 innings. For good measure, he also hasn’t walked a batter and has one win and two holds.

In many fantasy leagues, managers haven’t yet completely caught on to his production and role. In Fantrax leagues, for example, he is rostered in 87% of leagues. That should be 100%. If your league is like this, stop reading this and go pick up O’Brien and enjoy the 15-20 saves coming your way. The Cardinals’ offense isn’t as bad as was projected, so O’Brien should have plenty of save opportunities this season.

Overvalued Players

Vinnie Pasquantino (1B – KCR)

Is this the same player we saw dominate Spring Training and the World Baseball Classic? Pasquantino has had a horrific start to the season, hitting just .153/.246/.169 with no home runs, a huge spike in strikeout rate (23.2%), and an ISO of just .017 (career .184). His expected statistics aren’t much better. His Statcast numbers show he should be hitting .207 with a .272 slugging percentage. Those numbers are also awful.

Something happened to his power, and it has taken away all his offensive ability this year. After a 10% barrel rate in 2025, it has plummeted to 2% this year. His hard-hit rate is way down, as is his average exit velocity and max exit velocity. The best I can tell is that his zone contact rate has dropped significantly from last season. This might rebound if he makes more contact in the zone, but if he can’t, it’s going to be a long season for his managers.

Junior Caminero (3B – TBR)

Junior Caminero has had a frustrating start to 2026, and it mostly comes down to his approach. The raw power is still there, but he’s expanding the zone too often and getting himself into bad counts, which has led to a strikeout rate pushing toward the 21% range. Pitchers have adjusted to 45 home runs last season by feeding him more breaking balls and off-speed pitches out of the zone, and he hasn’t consistently shown the discipline to lay off. As a result, his batting average has hovered around .245, but at least his walk rate is 13%.

Caminero (after 45 home runs in 2025) has been like a guy who shows up to a barbecue with a flamethrower instead of a BBQ grill. It might look impressive, and occasionally you get the job done, but most of the time things are completely out of control. Caminero needs to stop trying to hit a home run every at-bat and get his zone swing rate (61%) back where it was last year (70%).

Kyle Bradish (SP – BAL)

Coming into 2026, projection systems like Steamer, ZiPS, and THE BAT generally had Bradish in the range of about a 3.50–3.70 ERA, and around a 1.20 WHIP. That’s solid SP2-SP3 production, but not an elite, top-tier ace. Those projections already accounted for some regression and injury risk, meaning his actual talent level was seen as good, not dominant. Regardless, he was taken in the top 75 in many drafts this spring.

So far in 2026, the results have been nowhere near that level. Through his first few starts, Bradish owns a 5.27 ERA and 1.68 WHIP across just 13.2 innings, along with a 1–2 record. That WHIP in particular is a major red flag.  Even if you look under the hood, the issues persist. His early-season strand rate ( about 60%) and walk rate (nearly 15%) point to command inconsistency and struggles with runners on base.

His third start was much better, and could be a sign of things turning around. Hopefully, the upcoming starts against the Diamondbacks and the Guardians will get him back on track.