Fantasy Baseball Overvalued and Undervalued – Week 7

It’s tough to call any fantasy baseball players overvalued or undervalued a little more than six weeks into a season. No team has played more than 50 games, and sample sizes are tiny compared to what we normally need to make long-term judgments on players. But we are starting to learn who they really are.

Based on early performance, team usage, and changes to a player’s approach or mechanics, it’s already clear that some players were undervalued in fantasy baseball draft rooms while others appear to have been overvalued.

More great Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire | Weekly SP Rankings | Pitching Streamers | Two-Start Pitchers | Lineup Analysis | MLB Injury Report | Rookie Report | Advanced Stats | Under the Radar | Overvalued & Undervalued | Bullpen Report

This weekly piece will look at the past seven days of fantasy baseball performances to see who should be considered overvalued and undervalued going forward. When necessary, I will reference the Fantrax top 400 rotisserie rankings for the 2026 fantasy baseball season.

Fantasy Baseball’s Most Undervalued Players

(Stats are up to date as of May 11)

Kazuma Okamoto (1B/3B – TOR)

Over the last two weeks, Japanese rookie Kazuma Okamoto has emerged from early-season struggles and has been a top-10 player with a .300 average, five home runs, and 15 RBI. Overall, he now has 10 homers on the season and has become a fixture in the cleanup spot for the Toronto Blue Jays, who are hunting for any kind of good offense.

In Japan, Okamoto was a prolific home run hitter, with six seasons of 30 or more home runs before he turned 28. That elite power is starting to translate to MLB, and he still carries a 10.8% walk rate to balance all the power starting to emerge. His hard-hit rate is one of the highest in the league at 53.5%, and Okamoto is a clear candidate for a huge second half.

Alec Burleson (1B/OF – STL)

Alec Burleson has taken another step forward in 2026 because he has turned himself into one of the toughest hitters in the National League to get out. Burleson has cut down on his swing-and-miss rate, he is walking more often, and he’s consistently putting the ball in play with authority.

Now routinely hitting cleanup for the Cardinals, Burleson is producing a .266/.341/.448 line with a 10% walk rate and 30 RBI already. Eligible at both first base and outfield, Burleson is the perfect under-the-radar player who is an excellent trade target. All of his Statcast metrics are up, and this looks like a breakout year for Burleson.

Bryce Elder (SP – ATL)

Bryce Elder was not among the top 600 players drafted in fantasy baseball leagues this year, including those played on Fantrax. His rise to one of the game’s top pitchers has been nothing short of amazing, and he now ranks as one of the top 20 players on most player raters. Elder has a 1.81 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, four wins, and 53 strikeouts in 54 innings.

How is he doing it? First, he has added over a strikeout per inning to his ratio this year, and has really cut down on his home runs allowed. He has also cut massive chunks off of his hard-hit rate, exit velocity, and barrel rate allowed this year. The increased soft contact has led to a miniscule 5.7% home run per fly ball rate. The tools are all there as Elder enters his prime age-26 season.

Fantasy Baseball’s Most Overvalued Players

Hunter Goodman (C – COL)

There are three catchers with at least 10 home runs so far in the 2026 season — Hunter Goodman, Shea Langeliers, and Drake Baldwin. Goodman is the one we have to worry about, who might start to see his numbers decline soon.

First, Goodman’s BABIP is high at .333. It will always stay somewhat inflated because of Coors Field, but his career number is .298. Second, Goodman’s strikeout rate is 36.5%, the highest in the National League and second-highest in all of baseball. A meager 7.6% walk rate accompanies that, so his discipline at the plate has been almost nonexistent this year.

Still, Goodman has 11 home runs and a .507 slugging rate. Will he remain fantasy-relevant because he plays half of his games in Colorado? Absolutely. But I do not expect him to keep pace with the likes of Langeliers and Baldwin based on what I am seeing from Goodman through the first seven weeks.

Corey Seager (SS – TEX)

We are now seven weeks into the 2026 season, and shortstop Corey Seager still has a batting average below .200. In fact, it sits at .189 after a sixth straight hitless game on Tuesday. Seager has seven home runs and 21 runs on the season, but things under the hood are looking really bad in Seager’s age-32 season.

His hard-hit rate and exit velocity have both taken big dips from last season. Seager’s strikeout rate is up over seven percentage points from last year to this one. And his chase rate on pitches outside the zone has jumped from 23% to 29%. The end comes for every player someday, and I fear we might be looking at the beginning of it for Seager.

Sandy Alcantara (SP – MIA)

By name recognition and past success, Sandy Alcantara is one of those pitchers you just always think you can rely on to be steady. The problem, however, is that his performance in 2026 has been the exact opposite of that. He has a 3.90 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and just 39 strikeouts in 57.2 innings. While he hasn’t been absolutely awful overall, the ups and downs have been maddening for fantasy managers.

In his May 10 start against Washington, Alcantara had a 3.00 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. That’s promising! But it was the first time he had a WHIP below 1.50 in a game since April 7. Alcantara’s strikeout rate is the lowest of his career (6.1/9) and his 3.12 walks per nine innings are the highest in a full season since 2019.

If his ultra-low 6.1% home run to fly ball rate regresses to normal levels, Alcantara’s season could take a turn for the worse quickly.