The MLB ABS system is about to change how you draft your fantasy baseball teams.
For a sport that is always leaning into its traditions, baseball keeps evolving. The DH is now universal. We now have pitch clocks, bigger bases, and a limited number of times a pitcher can throw to first base.
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Every time MLB makes these changes, fantasy baseball managers have to rethink how they want to build their teams. Prior to 2023, if you wanted to lead your league in stolen bases, you had to pay a premium. You grabbed a speedster in the early rounds, even if that was the only category in which they were productive.
In 2022, there were only six players who stole over 30 bases, so that made sense. In 2025, there were 21 players who stole over 30 bases. If you are a manager who likes to stay ahead of the curve, you are no longer drafting players who just steal bases. You can build a more competitive roster by filling it with 20/20 guys.
This year, the big change is the use of ABS. It’s only been in place for a little over a month, but we’re already seeing some trends. The most notable is that walks are up from 8.4% last year to 9.6% this year. That is a 12% jump.
How ABS Affects Pitchers
Some pitchers are going to struggle with this new system. Those who could live on the corners in the past will have to change their approach or continue to watch their ERAs go up. The strike zone has shrunk approximately 10 to 12 percent. Those called strikes that were on the edge of the zone are more likely to be called balls now. No longer will we see a Mike Maddux or a Tom Glavine paint the outside corner and then keep pushing further out.
A perfect example of what this means is Eduardo Rodríguez of the Arizona Diamondbacks. In 2025, he pitched on the edge 47.5 percent of the time. That was good for the fourth highest. His percentages over the last four years were 44.0, 44.4, 46.7, and 47.5. This year, his percentage is 43.8, and he ranks 55th. Not only is he pitching in the zone more, but called strikes have gone up from last year’s 15.6 to this year’s 20.3. By having better control, he has brought his ERA down from over five in 2024 and 2025 to just over three this year. He no longer has to rely on the umpire to give him that pitch that is just a bit outside.
The other way to beat the system is to have elite stuff+ and be able to throw your pitch so hard that no one can touch it. Mason Miller is almost unhittable. A 6’8” Trevor Megill has a steep release plane that creates a vertical entry that the ABS records as a strike more often than not.
David Bednar, Carlos Estevez, and Kenley Jansen are all pitchers who may have a problem this year with the new system because of velo, or because they were always pitching on the edge. We have found out that the ABS system doesn’t care about reputations.
Mason Miller, Cam Schlittler, and Dylan Cease should all see their numbers improve with the new ABS system.
How Batters are Impacted
The hitters are obviously reaping the benefits more than the pitchers, and for various reasons. A player like Aaron Judge, at 6’ 7”, would previously have the low balls called as strikes. A player of average height would have the bottom of the zone somewhere near 19.7 inches from the ground. Umpires would get locked into that tunnel, and because Judge’s bottom of the zone is 21.3 inches, some of those low pitches were called strikes.
Since pitchers now have a more compact area to work with, those hitters who have always mastered the strike zone now have a tremendous advantage and will see their walks skyrocket, and their OBP should climb this year.
We are seeing Mike Trout have one of his best seasons, and that is saying a lot. He has a career walk rate of 15%, and this year it has jumped to 21.7%. Because pitchers have to bring the ball into him more, he is seeing a jump in contact rate, going from last year’s 73.6% to this year’s 81.6%.
Players like Luis Arraez, Steven Kwan, and Nico Horner should all benefit.
Some players who are less disciplined and more free-swinging may have a hard time adjusting. Other players with high chase rates and a low walk rate before the new ABS system will see their numbers decline.
Ceddanne Rafaela, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Salvador Perez should all be in that category.
It’s still very early in the season, so don’t take this as a buy/sell article. Look at this as more of a put these players on your watch list. Some players may adjust. We have seen someone like Jordan Walker finally look like the player the Cardinals had in mind when they drafted him. If he hadn’t made some changes, he would probably have been on the list of players to trade away.
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