Breakout pitchers in fantasy baseball are often identified in April and May, when early performances raise eyebrows even if they are few and far between. Savvy managers identify skills growth and improvement before the rest of their fantasy baseball league catches up.
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Everyone has heard about Jose Soriano’s breakout by now. He has matured into an elite ace so far in 2026. But through seven starts in 2026, the OTHER clear early breakout candidate in Southern California is Jack Kochanowicz, also of the Los Angeles Angels.
The Next Under-the-Radar Breakout Pitcher of 2026
Kochanowicz is in his age-25 season, a time when a lot of pitchers just start to reach their prime. Kochanowicz is probably not done growing and maturing and will evolve in the years ahead. He’s a fixture in the Angels’ rotation with seven starts; he is no longer a prospect, and he is not in the bullpen trying to figure things out. Despite not even being in our pitcher ranks coming into the season, Kochanowicz could easily finish in the top 40 this year.
Let’s dive deeper into why the young Kochanowicz is a must-roster right now in fantasy baseball.
Jack Kochanowicz’s First 7 Starts Were Impressive
The most immediate reason to believe in Kochanowicz’s breakout is what he has already shown in his first seven starts of the 2026 season. In his three most recent starts, Kochanowicz completely dominated the Mets, White Sox, and Blue Jays, tossing at least five and two-thirds innings and never allowing more than two earned runs.
He is having a bit of a problem with control (4.5 walks per nine innings), but still looked fully in control against different lineups featuring elite hitters. The fact that he has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start since his first of the season speaks to his enviable consistency.
Kochanowicz has a 3.05 ERA this season and is striking out almost seven batters per nine innings. It is quite the turnaround for a pitcher who posted a 6.81 ERA in 2025. What is behind the success so far? What’s driving the ERA to drop by more than half? Let’s look more at his pitching profile.
Kochanowicz’s Pitch Mix is Working Wonders
Jack Kochanowicz is nowhere close to being a one-dimensional or one-pitch pitcher. He brings a deep arsenal, including four pitches that he throws over 19% of the time. That kind of diversity keeps hitters guessing, and a four-seam fastball and sinker that look similar and both come off the arm at 96 miles per hour are devastating.
He has also added some more velocity to his fastball. Last season, his four-seamer sat at just 95.5 miles per hour. So far in 2026, that pitch is up to 96.1 mph and has a whiff rate of over 10%. But the sinker remains his bread and butter. Add all of the pitches up, and he is able to keep hitters fooled as to what is coming. He has a 51% first-pitch strike rate, and his contact rate has dropped over five percentage points since last season.
Groundballs Can Mask Most Control Issues
What can Kochanowicz do during a start where the swing and miss isn’t working for him? He can rely on his devastating sinker to induce groundballs all day long. In the past three seasons, and also in his minor league seasons, that has become perhaps the most dominant part of his game.
After debuting with a 57% groundball rate in 2024, Kochanowicz has increased his groundball rate this year, arriving at 61.7% so far in 2026. He is generating groundballs at a rate that is more than double the number of flyballs he allows. That mark above 60% is extremely rare for a starter. Even in Framber Valdez’s most prolific groundball years, he was topping out at 66%. Kochanowicz is almost there.
In his last two starts, Kochanowicz has been above 67% groundball rate in each of them. In fact, he has no game this season where he has been below a 50% groundball rate. Add in at least five strikeouts in three out of his past four games, and this skillset looks phenomenal through seven turns.
Kochanowicz Was Projected to Be Average, But He Could Be Great
Add up all the attributes from above, and we have an underrated ace to start the season. In fact, he has been so good with the groundball that he is on a list of the best pitchers in baseball. No starter is better at inducing them.
Top Groundball Rates in MLB Among Qualified Starters:
- Jack Kochanowicz (61.7%)
- Clay Holmes (58.2%)
- Logan Webb (58.0%)
- Christopher Sanchez (57.3%)
- George Kirby (56.5%)
Projection systems are mixed on Kochanowicz the rest of the way, but they all show one thing. Each of them believes Kochanowicz will improve on his walk rate and that it will drop by more than one walk per nine innings.
That, plus an ERA in the 4.00 range, might not immediately strike you as “ace” material, but for fantasy purposes, that level of production, especially that he is free on the waiver wire, can easily return top-35 starting pitcher value. If Kochanowicz’s projected command and control gains and whiff rates are real, he could outperform those forecasts by a huge margin.
Through seven starts, it all seems to be working for him despite the control issues. I’m here to tell you that not only can this continue, but there is a chance it could get even better. Jack Kochanowicz is the OTHER Angels’ breakout pitcher of 2026, and he is worth adding in your 12- and 14-team rosters.
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