While it is still early in the season, it is never a bad time to start diving into batted ball data to look at hitters who have been performing well. Looking at statcast data can be helpful to help validate performances, though the changed ball makes things a little more complicated. For today’s Statcast Standouts article, we will look at some hitters who have looked strong in plate discipline statistics and those who have regressed from last season.
Statcast Standouts: Plate Discipline Statistics
O-Swing Percentage
O-Swing percentage gives a good idea of how well a hitter knows the strike zone and chases pitches. You may have heard O-Swing also called chase rate. O-Swing is defined as swings at pitches outside the zone divided by pitches outside the zone.
Risers
| Player | Team | 22 O-Swing% | 21 O-Swing% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Smith | NYM | 21.10% | 38.00% | 16.90% |
| Jose Iglesias | COL | 30.30% | 46.90% | 16.60% |
| Gavin Lux | LAD | 12.10% | 26.30% | 14.20% |
| Will Smith | LAD | 10.60% | 24.70% | 14.10% |
| Salvador Perez | KCR | 37.30% | 48.30% | 11.00% |
| Pavin Smith | ARI | 18.10% | 28.70% | 10.60% |
| Nick Solak | TEX | 23.90% | 34.20% | 10.30% |
| Tyler Naquin | CIN | 31.40% | 41.20% | 9.80% |
| Martin Maldonado | HOU | 17.90% | 27.30% | 9.40% |
| Jesse Winker | SEA | 18.70% | 27.80% | 9.10% |
| Jose Abreu | CHW | 26.90% | 35.90% | 9.00% |
| Austin Meadows | DET | 20.20% | 29.00% | 8.80% |
Gavin Lux has made significant strides at the plate and is off to a solid start to the 2022 season. He has a .250/.378/.417 slash line with a home run and two stolen bases. Lux is chasing less often this year and has cut his O-swing percentage from 26.3 percent to 12.1 percent in the early sample. He is making less zone contact, which has always been a solid strength for Lux. But if the zone contact comes back with the low chase rate, Lux could be in for an even better season.
Fallers
| Player | Team | 22 O-Swing% | 21 O-Swing% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raimel Tapia | TOR | 54.70% | 36.70% | -18.00% |
| Joey Gallo | NYY | 35.80% | 22.10% | -13.70% |
| Josh Donaldson | NYY | 38.70% | 26.30% | -12.40% |
| Jonathan India | CIN | 36.60% | 25.00% | -11.60% |
| Tim Anderson | CHW | 51.90% | 40.50% | -11.40% |
| Rafael Devers | BOS | 47.40% | 36.10% | -11.30% |
| Giancarlo Stanton | NYY | 42.30% | 31.80% | -10.50% |
| Jeimer Candelario | DET | 42.40% | 32.30% | -10.10% |
| Gleyber Torres | NYY | 37.50% | 27.50% | -10.00% |
| Didi Gregorius | PHI | 46.60% | 36.70% | -9.90% |
| Victor Robles | WSN | 38.10% | 28.30% | -9.80% |
The list of fallers finds several Yankees in the top ten. Joey Gallo, Josh Donaldson, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres all crack the top ten of biggest O-Swing fallers. Another concerning name is Tim Anderson, who chased 40.5 percent of balls out of the zone last season, and the trend has continued. He has an O-Swing percentage up over 50 right now.
Z-Swing Percentage
Like O-Swing percentage, Z-Swing is simply the number of swings a batter takes on pitches thrown in the strike zone. Zone swings help show how aggressive or passive a hitter may be on pitches in the zone. The higher number of zone swings, the better.
Risers
| Player | Team | 22 Z-Swing% | 21 Z-Swing% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Vazquez | BOS | 78.50% | 66.00% | 12.50% |
| Yasmani Grandal | CHW | 63.00% | 51.10% | 11.90% |
| Leury Garcia | CHW | 83.30% | 72.50% | 10.80% |
| Mitch Haniger | SEA | 75.80% | 65.40% | 10.40% |
| Cedric Mullins II | BAL | 74.70% | 64.50% | 10.20% |
| Matt Duffy | LAA | 73.20% | 63.10% | 10.10% |
| Jason Heyward | CHC | 69.80% | 61.30% | 8.50% |
| Miguel Rojas | MIA | 75.90% | 67.60% | 8.30% |
| Marcus Semien | TEX | 79.60% | 71.60% | 8.00% |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | 82.40% | 74.50% | 7.90% |
| Alex Verdugo | BOS | 72.10% | 64.40% | 7.70% |
Bryce Harper is the name that stands out most to be on this list. Harper’s swing rate is up nearly ten percentage points from last season. He always posts extremely high walk rates, giving him a boosted value in OBP leagues. This year, however, Harper is swinging more and putting more balls in play. His swinging-strike rate is up, but it will be fun to see what Harper can do if he continues to swing at more pitches in the zone.
Fallers
| Player | Team | 22 Z-Swing% | 21 Z-Swing% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Cronenworth | SDP | 48.30% | 62.60% | -14.30% |
| Jose Altuve | HOU | 53.00% | 66.70% | -13.70% |
| Rougned Odor | BAL | 59.60% | 73.20% | -13.60% |
| Christian Walker | ARI | 69.90% | 83.40% | -13.50% |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | 54.50% | 67.60% | -13.10% |
| Trent Grisham | SDP | 53.00% | 65.50% | -12.50% |
| Austin Slater | SFG | 54.50% | 66.30% | -11.80% |
| Josh Donaldson | NYY | 60.00% | 71.50% | -11.50% |
| Patrick Wisdom | CHC | 65.60% | 77.10% | -11.50% |
| Eddie Rosario | ATL | 65.70% | 77.10% | -11.40% |
Jake Cronenworth’s early-season struggles could be due to the lack of swinging. His walk rate is over double what it was last season, but his swing rate is down almost 15 percentage points. His contact is as good as ever, but Cronenworth needs to be more aggressive as he has seen his called strikes rate go up significantly.
Z-Contact Percentage
When looking at zone-contact percentage, you can define it as the number of times a hitter makes contact on pitches inside the zone divided by swings on pitches in the zone. Zone contact is a great metric to tell how efficient a hitter is at making contact, especially on good pitches thrown in the zone.
Risers
| Player | Team | 22 Z-Contact% | 21 Z-Contact% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Haase | DET | 89.50% | 76.30% | 13.20% |
| Amed Rosario | CLE | 96.20% | 85.20% | 11.00% |
| Michael A. Taylor | KCR | 90.70% | 80.60% | 10.10% |
| Joey Wendle | MIA | 98.20% | 88.10% | 10.10% |
| Maikel Franco | WSN | 94.90% | 85.00% | 9.90% |
| Randy Arozarena | TBR | 85.90% | 76.00% | 9.90% |
| Freddie Freeman | LAD | 93.70% | 84.40% | 9.30% |
| Didi Gregorius | PHI | 94.00% | 84.90% | 9.10% |
| Yandy Diaz | TBR | 96.20% | 87.50% | 8.70% |
| Mitch Haniger | SEA | 91.50% | 82.90% | 8.60% |
| Cody Bellinger | LAD | 85.50% | 77.10% | 8.40% |
It is certainly good to see Cody Bellinger’s name make this leaderboard. After two seasons of massive struggles, it is good to see him getting back on track. Bellinger’s contact rates resemble his 2019 MVP season, and his zone-contact rate is better so far in 2022. It is still early, but Cody Bellinger could be having a significant bounce-back season.
Fallers
| Player | Team | 22 Z-Contact% | 21 Z-Contact% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Slater | SFG | 50.00% | 78.80% | -28.80% |
| Jason Heyward | CHC | 64.90% | 90.70% | -25.80% |
| Omar Narvaez | MIL | 72.40% | 88.30% | -15.90% |
| Paul DeJong | STL | 69.40% | 83.40% | -14.00% |
| Jarred Kelenic | SEA | 73.00% | 85.20% | -12.20% |
| Brendan Rodgers | COL | 74.60% | 86.60% | -12.00% |
| Trevor Story | BOS | 74.50% | 86.10% | -11.60% |
| Gavin Lux | LAD | 77.20% | 88.50% | -11.30% |
| Elvis Andrus | OAK | 82.00% | 91.60% | -9.60% |
| Dansby Swanson | ATL | 71.60% | 81.00% | -9.40% |
Jarred Kelenic needed a solid start to the season, and unfortunately, it has not come. Kelenic currently has a .167/.226/.354 slash line and a 37.7 percent strikeout rate. It is a little concerning to see the contact skills regress some in the early going. Kelenic’s contact rate has dipped below 70 percent, and his zone contact has dropped over 12 percentage points so far in 2022.
Contact Percentage
Contact percentage is defined as the number of pitches in which contact was made divided by total swings. Not all contact is created equal, which is why zone contact can be helpful to use. A hitter can make a ton of contact out of the zone, but it does not matter if it is poor contact quality. But, contact percentage gives a good idea of how often a hitter is swinging and making contact with the baseball.
Risers
| Player | Team | 22 Contact% | 21 Contact% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Haase | DET | 87.00% | 67.40% | 19.60% |
| Joey Wendle | MIA | 91.10% | 77.30% | 13.80% |
| Amed Rosario | CLE | 86.90% | 76.80% | 10.10% |
| Michael A. Taylor | KCR | 80.00% | 70.60% | 9.40% |
| Andrew Vaughn | CHW | 87.00% | 78.00% | 9.00% |
| Yandy Diaz | TBR | 90.70% | 82.10% | 8.60% |
| Austin Meadows | DET | 85.50% | 77.20% | 8.30% |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | PIT | 88.80% | 80.50% | 8.30% |
| Ian Happ | CHC | 78.30% | 70.30% | 8.00% |
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | 85.40% | 77.50% | 7.90% |
It is great to see Andrew Vaughn crack this list as a player who has improved his contact skills in 2022. Vaughn is forcing his way into the everyday lineup(which is crazy to even say), thanks to a .306/.375/.611 slash with three home runs through 40 plate appearances. His statcast metrics are off the chart, which is a strong combo to have with the contact rate improving.
Fallers
| Player | Team | 22 Contact% | 21 Contact% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Duffy | LAA | 71.20% | 86.10% | -14.90% |
| Brendan Rodgers | COL | 67.00% | 80.00% | -13.00% |
| Jason Heyward | CHC | 65.60% | 78.20% | -12.60% |
| Raimel Tapia | TOR | 74.50% | 87.00% | -12.50% |
| Omar Narvaez | MIL | 67.20% | 79.00% | -11.80% |
| Chris Taylor | LAD | 58.90% | 69.40% | -10.50% |
| Carlos Correa | MIN | 70.10% | 80.50% | -10.40% |
| Dansby Swanson | ATL | 62.90% | 72.70% | -9.80% |
| Jorge Polanco | MIN | 72.00% | 81.60% | -9.60% |
| Adam Duvall | ATL | 63.70% | 73.20% | -9.50% |
Sadly, it is not surprising to see Dansby Swanson as a prominent faller and having one of the worst contact rates among all hitters. He has the most strikeouts among all hitters, so naturally, the poor contact rate comes with that. It is still too early to write off Swanson completely, but his start to 2022 has been dreadful.
Thanks for taking the time to read this edition of Statcast Standouts. Be sure to head over to the FantraxHQ home page to see all our other great work.
Statistical References: Fangraphs, Baseball Savant