After a pit stop in Mexico, the PGA Tour moves on to the Florida swing which kicks off with the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches. This is the second year with a new sponsor and tournament name but the formerly named Honda Classic has been played at the PGA National Champion course since 2007.
With the combination of travel from the West Coast to Mexico to Florida and the number of bunched-up premier events leading up to this week, the field is not strong on paper. Just five of the Top 25 and 15 of the Top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings are teeing it up this week. Weak field or not, hopefully, we can get another exciting finish like we had in Mexico!
Let’s jump in and take a look at the course, top stats, and some best bets for this week.
The Course: PGA National Resort & Spa
Big change this week as we go from the bomb and gouge birdie-fest of last week to one of the toughest tests on the PGA Tour. The Champion Course has consistently ranked as a Top 10 hardest course on Tour and that includes the majors. There are many factors that go into the difficulty starting with the water which is in play on 15 of the 18 holes. It is there off the tee and combined with narrow fairways, limits the landing zones and that, in turn, forces golfers into longer iron approaches that can also be guarded by water hazards.
This will be the second year where the course now plays as a Par 71 as the 10th hole was converted from a long par 4 into a scoreable par 5 going into last years event. This definitely affected scoring as Austin Eckroat shot -17 to win last year, which is the lowest score at this event when played at the PGA National Champion Course.
Key Stats: Accuracy, Long Irons, and Avoid the Danger!
The most important aspect to this very difficult golf course is avoiding danger and that starts with accuracy and placement off the tee. Driving accuracy and fairways gained are heavily weighted in my model this week. With players concentrating more on avoiding danger and hitting fairways leads to more approach shots coming from 175-200 and 200+ yards. Not only will there be more long iron approaches, they will be very challenging, as well, with dangers lurking around almost every green. Finally, I will also be looking closely at putting trends overall and on Bermuda grass.
With all that said, here are the Top 10 in my stats model for this week:
- Sepp Straka
- Alex Smalley
- Russell Henley
- Brian Campbell
- Matt Kuchar
- Nicolai Højgaard
- Taylor Pendrith
- Joel Dahmen
- Gary Woodland
- Daniel Berger
Best Bets: Cognizant Classic
With a weaker field and no golfers inside of +2000, we have a large group of golfers congested in the next range and coincidentally enough, they all rank among the most accurate golfers in the field. There is a good chance of the winner coming from this range so let’s take a look at one I think takes home the trophy……again.
Sepp Straka Outright (+2500)
Straka won this event when it was still the Honda Classic back in 2022 and comes in this time around with some of his best form yet. He had a bit of a misstep at Torrey Pines for the Genesis Invitational and missed the cut but I will chalk that up to terrible weather conditions. Prior to that, he has been terrific in 2025 making all five cuts with a win at the AMEX, a Top 10 at Pebble Beach, and two other Top 15 finishes at the Phoenix Open and Tournament of Champions. During those five events, he gained three or more strokes on approach four times and averaged 5.4 strokes gained ball striking.
He checks all the boxes for me this week and I like his chances to become the first two-time winner on the PGA Tour this season.
Luke Clanton Outright (+5500) / Top 10 (+450) / Top 20 (+250)
Luke Clanton could earn his PGA Tour card with just a made cut this week but I love his upside of finishing much better. He is 12th in my mixed condition model highlighted by a ranking of 15th in SG: Total in difficult scoring conditions, 17th in SG: Total in weak fields, and 10th in SG: Ball Striking over the last 24 rounds overall. The one part of his game that has held him up a bit has been the putting but there is some good news. During his short PGA Tour amateur career, he has finished 15th or better in five of six events where he has gained at least a half stroke putting on the field. This will be his first “Florida Swing” on tour but he is a Florida native and went to Florida State so no better place to earn his card.
This will be a ladder-style bet for me this week where I will put the most units on the Top 20 bet then mix in Top 10’s, Top 5’s, and outright’s at smaller unit bets.
Lee Hodges Top 10 (+600)
I will probably get there on the +5500 outright but I currently love the number for the Top 10 on Hodges this week. He already has two on the season, one of which came at a comp course for me this week, Waialae Country Club for the Sony Open. He is 11th in my model looking at difficult scoring conditions and comes into this event ranked 17th in fairways gained and 29th in SG: Putting over the last 24 rounds. He missed the cut here last year but has a Top 10 and two Top 15’s in three career trips.
