It’s March! There will be actual regular-season baseball games this month! Hope you’re getting excited. I know I am. After doing lots of mock drafts and watching spring games, I’ve noticed a bunch of late-round deep-league pitching targets that I’d like to share.
Deep leagues, for the purpose of this article, will start 338 picks into the player pool and go all the way to pick 465. To put that into context: that would start at the 28th round in a 12-team league (23rd in a 15-teamer) and carry through to the 39th (end of the 31st round for 15-team leagues).
If you play in a league where that matters, god bless you. Hope you’re doing your homework. When I play in leagues that size, I like to focus less on upside and more on limiting downside risk. At this late stage of the draft, every player of course will come with risk. But one factor that limits risk is a current spot on the roster (rotation in this case) and a team’s willingness to give the player a decent-sized leash. Meaning, the pitcher can have a rough few starts to open the season and will be given an opportunity to correct things.
So with that in mind, all four of my picks are in that position. Plus they have upside. Which makes them particularly suitable for deep-league roster construction.
I also wanted to note that Nick Martinez (ADP 320) would be my top priority on this list. I’ve already written extensively on why I think that is, so feel free to peruse. The following names, though, are excellent fallback plans.
Deep-League Pitching Targets
Max Scherzer SP Blue Jays ADP 338
2024: 43.1 IP 2-4 W-L 40 K 3.95 ERA 1.15 WHIP
With over 200 wins, 3407 strikeouts, a 3.16/1.08 ERA/WHIP, and three career Cy Young awards over 17 seasons, I’m guessing you’ve already heard of Max Scherzer. Sadly, though, the most important stat right now is his age. The future Hall of Famer will turn 41 this July. Not many pitchers tend to be fantasy-relevant at that age. Hence the ADP that leaves the righty mostly undrafted.
And age has naturally come with injuries recently. After herniated disk surgery in December of 2023 and a nerve issue in his thumb stalled the beginning of his 2024 season until late June, the veteran made only nine starts before a hamstring injury effectively ended his season in July. Additionally, Scherzer’s work level was already trending down before last season. He hasn’t thrown at 153 innings since 2021.
There are certainly positives, though. The biggest one is that, aside from injury, Mad Max is still effective when he does pitch. That’s not only reflected in last year’s line (above). Or in his last three years combined (341 IP 26-15 W-L 10.2 K/9 3.16 ERA 1.03 WHIP). But also in his underlying stats, which in limited innings do show well-above-average chase rate, whiff rate, walk rate, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. And even looking at the last three seasons, they don’t show the ability falling off an age-related cliff, more like a slow descent down a gentle special-access ramp.
Another positive: he’s healthy right now. Just this Tuesday, the righty made his first appearance of the spring. It went really well (2IP 1H 0BB 4K). It’s a big deal and a big difference from last season when Scherzer didn’t have the winter months to prepare and came to camp still rehabbing. It’s what he cited as the reason he could never sustain his health. After the season he said, “I really feel like if I get a full offseason to actually train… that’s going to matter.”
The former Cy Young winner got what he wanted. The Blue Jays were convinced enough to offer him $15.5 Million on the hunch that he will stay on the field and deliver positive results. Unlike them, you only need to invest a 23rd-round draft pick in 15-team leagues. That’s some amazing value with pretty much no risk. If you don’t have IL spots as a fallback plan, maybe pick someone else on this list. But otherwise, he’s a great deep-league pitcher option.
Ryan Weathers SP Marlins ADP 376
2024: 86.2 IP 5-6 W-L 80 K 3.63 ERA 1.18 WHIP
Ryan Weathers tends to get overlooked for a number of reasons. The most obvious is the poor career ERA and WHIP (5.08 ERA/1.40 WHIP over 242.2 IP). Another is playing on the lowly Marlins who lost 100 games last year. And perhaps the biggest one: the lefty missed half of the 2024 season with a finger strain.
When that occurred in early June, it was clear that the then-24-year-old was finally starting to live up to the potential that made him a first-round (7th overall) draft pick back in 2018. His results were greatly improved. At the time of his injury, he had an even better line than above (3.41 ERA/1.12 WHIP) and had just come off an 11-strikeout performance. But more specifically, Weathers found great command of both his sweeper and changeup. The former was particularly impressive with a 51.0% whiff rate! And the change was great at 37.9%. He made strides with his control also, with a career-best 6.5% walk rate (good for 73rd percentile overall).
Another encouraging sign: Weathers has stated this spring that he spent the entire offseason working on “improving the shape” of his four-seemer. It was by far his weakest pitch (xBA .294/xSLUG .464/xWOBA .371 with just a 14% whiff rate) and possibly the last roadblock for dominance.
Finally, the second-generation major leaguer is down 20 pounds in an effort to stay healthy and “cover as many innings as [he] can.” He’s pretty much a lock for a rotation spot. His home ballpark is very good at limiting home runs (22nd according to Park Factors), which can be troublesome for him at times (1.1 HR/9 rate). And best of all, he’s buried so deep in the draft that you could select him in the 25th round of even a 15-teamer. That’s zero risk with plenty of upside. I say go for it.
Max Meyer SP Marlins ADP 446
2024: 57 IP 3-5 W-L 46 K 5.68 ERA 1.42 WHIP
After some bad rookie-year results (above), fantasy managers have seriously faded Max Meyer. That’s fair. The underlying stats back up the disappointment from last season. They show that the righty got hit very hard. He literally had the worst barrel rate of any starter in baseball (13.9%) and his contact numbers were not far behind (2nd percentile hard-hit rate and 7th percentile average exit velocity). He even lost a tick on his fastball, a weapon that once made him an exciting prospect.
That wasn’t too long ago. Only last year, in fact, the now-25-year-old was generating significant buzz. His successful spring, necessitated by season-ending injuries to Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez, led to a spot in the Marlins Opening Day rotation. After three encouraging starts, the buzz was even greater (2.12 ERA/0.82 WHIP/14 Ks in 15 IP). The Marlins, though, decided they had enough talent at the Major League level and, to much consternation of fans, demoted their hottest pitcher.
It’s easy to forget that Meyer was returning from Tommy John surgery. The plan was never to subject him to a full season’s workload. And traditionally it’s common, even among established talent, that the first year back can come with decreased command. It usually gets a pass. FWIW, his best pitch, the slider, still graded out as very good (Stuff+ 117). His fastball just got demolished (.321 xBA/.612 xSLUG .420 xWOBA).
Fast forward to today, the righty’s velocity is looking much better. He topped out at 97.7 MPH and averaged 96.4 MPH on his four-seamer during a scoreless one-inning Grapefruit League debut this week. That’s faster than even his pre-Tommy John level! Additionally, he’s come to camp with two new pitches, a sinker that can provide an alternative to the fastball. And a sweeper that can create a “separation” compared to the slider. This variety means batters won’t be able to “look for the hard stuff down” and will need to “prepare for something else.”
Given the pedigree (former third-overall draft pick), the near-lock rotation spot, the additional year removed from surgery, and a pitcher-friendly home ballpark, this deep-league pitcher provides everything you’d want at the end of the draft. Ton of upside, costs literally nothing, and you’re likely to know pretty quickly if the former prospect’s new weapons work. Totally worth the flyer.
Osvaldo Bido SP/RP A’s ADP 465
2024: 63.1 IP 5-3 W-L 63 K 3.41 ERA 1.09 WHIP
OK, maybe we should get the negative stuff out of the way first. Osvaldo Bido is already 29 years old. He’s only logged 114 innings in the majors. His extensive minor-league numbers leave much to be desired (585 IP 4.37 ERA/1.35 WHIP/8.4 K/9). And with the A’s moving to Sacramento this season, the home park isn’t likely to be nearly as pitcher-friendly as the Oakland Coliseum. And, oh yeah, as of right now, there’s no guarantee the righty has a rotation spot.
Even with all that said, this ADP seems a bit surprising. After some time in the bullpen last season, Bido became a fixture in the A’s rotation down the stretch. This started on July 23rd and over the corresponding eight starts (nine appearances) this was the righty’s line: 3.40 ERA/1.02 WHIP/9.4 K/9/4 Wins. That includes one very bad start (seven runs in 3.2 innings). If you look at his last seven appearances, the ERA drops down to 2.23. This culminated with a stretch where he allowed just two or fewer hits over three straight starts.
The underlying stats are even more impressive. They show an extreme ability to limit hard contact. Bido actually had the best average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage in all of baseball for pitchers who made at least one start. His barrel rate was elite (93rd percentile). And it led to elite expected stats (94th percentile xERA, for example).
Many experts credit this to the quality of his vast arsenal (three of his five pitches rank well above average in Stuff+), and a 34-degree arm angle that tends to deceive hitters and keep them off balance.
He’s off to a solid start this spring, too. During Monday’s debut, he threw two scoreless innings while collecting four strikeouts. It certainly bodes well for his rotation chances. Especially when his manager, Mark Kotsay, among other glowing compliments after the game says, “I think this kid could be an impact frontline starter.” That sort of talk sure makes it sound like he’s the front-runner to me.
All told, you’ve got some pretty plausible breakout potential at a place in the draft that is largely bereft of upside. Seems like a perfect late-round pick in any deep draft.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
