Welcome to another edition of Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers. Sample sizes are growing, but we’re still less than a month into the 2025 baseball season. That means we need to balance improving our rosters with trusting our draft process — and not overreact to a week’s worth of stats, good or bad.
This series looks at the week’s risers and fallers from a fantasy perspective. The goal is to help you with lineup and waiver wire decisions by taking a deeper look at recent player performances. With that in mind, let’s look at some Week 4 fantasy baseball risers and fallers.
Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers
Week 4 stats from 4/14-4/20
Risers
Austin Hays (OF — CIN)
Austin Hays made his 2025 debut last week and came crashing out of the gates. He hit safely in all six starts, including four multi-hit efforts. Hays totaled three home runs, seven runs scored, and eight RBI with a 1.252 OPS for the week. He also made loud contact, registering a 22.7% barrel rate and 59.1% hard-hit rate.
Hays won’t continue to produce at this level. But he’s an across-the-board contributor who can easily push for 20-23 dingers while hitting in the cozy confines of Great American Ball Park. He’ll also sprinkle in a handful of steals and hit for a plus batting average (career .264). Hays is hitting cleanup and looks to have found a new lease on life with the Reds. He is available in 40% of Fantrax and 60% of Yahoo leagues and should be scooped up during his hot start.
Jonathan Aranda (1B — TBR)
Jonathan Aranda continues to smoke the ball. He popped two home runs last week with five runs scored and five RBI across 28 plate appearances. Aranda registered a 19% barrel and 61.9% hard-hit rate for the week — nearly identical to his percentages on the season. Further, Aranda played in two of the week’s three games against lefties, the first time he’s started against southpaws all year.
Aranda has a strong plate approach and brings a ton of oomph to the fantasy table. He holds a .323 ISO across 73 plate appearances this season with a 1.116 OPS and .481 xwOBA. The primary ding against Aranda’s fantasy value is that he’s been in a strong-side platoon role. But his value would shoot up if we start seeing that change like last week. Stay tuned.
Dylan Moore (2B/3B/SS/OF — SEA)
Dylan Moore showcased some pop and speed last week, hitting three home runs and swiping three bags (on five attempts) across six games with a 248 wRC+. Moore’s playing time has been sporadic, but he’s played in seven of the Mariners’ last 10 games and should get more at-bats with Ryan Bliss on the IL.
For the year, Moore has five home runs and five steals with a .316/.371/.596 slash line across 62 plate appearances. He’s also making quality contact with a 14% barrel rate. His 56% success rate on the basepaths is less than ideal, but Moore is still good for 25 swipes with 10-13 homers. Expect regression in the batting average department (career .211), but while Moore is running hot, he’s a productive play in 15-team leagues.
Landen Roupp (SP — SFG)
Landen Roupp had a fantastic week. He collected two wins and combined for six earned runs on 11 hits with 17:4 K:BB across 12 innings. The outings were an extension of Roupp’s already-strong 2025. He’s racked up at least eight strikeouts in three of his four starts with a 4.09 ERA (2.80 xFIP, 2.98 SIERA) and 1.36 WHIP across 22 frames.
There’s not much not to like about Roupp. He throws a ton of strikes (31.2% K%) and limits quality contact (5.4% barrel rate). Additionally, he has a shiny 22.6% K-BB rate that ranks 17th best. Roupp plays in a pitcher’s park for a Giants team that is cruising right now. He’s available in ~35% of Fantrax and ~70% of Yahoo leagues. Let’s do something about that.
Fallers
Triston Casas (1B — BOS)
It was another tough week for Triston Casas, who recorded two hits and one RBI across 20 plate appearances. He also dropped from the cleanup spot to hitting sixth and seventh. Casas was a popular draft pick given his power upside. However, he also brought risk to the fantasy table with high strikeouts and poor contact rates.
So far this season, we’ve seen Casas’ floor. He’s slashing .167/.241/.250 with one home run, three runs scored and four RBI with a .083 ISO across 79 plate appearances. There’s some underperformance, but Casas’ contact rates remain below average (79.2% Z-contact), his quality contact is down, and he has an ugly 15.3% swinging-strike rate. Casas already sits against lefties, but his struggles could cost him more playing time — or a minor league stint.
Ryan McMahon (2B/3B — COL)
Ryan McMahon is riding the struggle bus. He had two hits across 19 at-bats last week and struck out at a whopping 46.2% clip. The strikeouts have been a problem for McMahon all season, with his 36.8% rate ranked second-worst in the league.
Overall, production has been few and far between for McMahon in 2025. Across 87 plate appearances, he has a .203/.310/.324 slash line with two home runs, five runs scored and four RBI with a 71 wRC+. What’s troubling is that McMahon isn’t underperforming his surface stats. His .317 BABIP nearly matches his career rate. Further, McMahon’s quality of contact metrics are down across the board, and his .203 batting average comes with a .184 xBA. We haven’t logged a month’s worth of games yet, but fantasy managers should be concerned. He’s a hold in 15-teamers and a drop in shallower leagues.
Josh Bell (1B — WAS)
Josh Bell’s cold start to the season extended another week. He logged only two hits in 23 at-bats and was 0-for-1 on the basepaths. One of his hits landed in the cheap seats, but that’s cold comfort for fantasy managers.
Bell has had little production this season, with a .561 OPS and 65 wRC+ across 83 plate appearances. However, some positive regression should come as his .135 BABIP is the second-lowest among qualified hitters. The question is, how much of a turnaround should we expect? Digging a little deeper, Bell’s underlying metrics are a mixed bag. While his plate skills and 9.1% barrel rate are consistent with his career norms, Bell’s 85.5 mph average EV and 80.9% zone-contact rate are career-worst marks. Bell is still a hold in 15-team leagues, but better options are likely available in shallower leagues.
