Pitching isn’t easy. The first month of the season is always going to be difficult as pitch counts are still being built up. Not only are pitchers still finding their groove, but the weather is an issue, and opposing offenses are still making themselves known. Seeing results on the field is one thing, but finding supporting data to back up the success takes things to the next level. Let’s dig into the advanced pitching stats of three pitchers whose ERAs are showing a real disparity with their FIPs.
Fantasy Baseball Advanced Pitching Stats
Don’t Write off Dylan Cease
It’s early in the season. I know I’m stating the obvious, but sample sizes are small. The problem, though, is when does that thought process change? And when do we act on what we are seeing on the field? But at what point do the results not match the actual performance?
In the case of Dylan Cease, we could be dealing with a buy-low situation. I mean, what else can it be when we are dealing with a 6.04 ERA? A closer look at Cease, though, points to optimism and better days on the horizon. With a 3.47 ERA last season and a track of success, none of it should come as a surprise. When comparing the two seasons, Cease is striking out over 10 batters per nine innings once again. His average fastball velocity still sits at 97 miles per hour, and he’s slightly improved his walk rate. Also, home runs aren’t Cease’s problem, so that’s a good sign.
While Cease’s 6.04 ERA is very real as part of your team stats, should it be ignored? A league-leading 3.40 disparity between that ERA and his 2.64 FIP means the best is yet to come. His .384 BABIP is bound to come down, and his FIP- of 68 (with 100 being average and a lower number being ideal) is appealing. Cease continues to limit hard contact, and he has a career-high first pitch strike rate of 64.6%.
Cole Ragans is Really Good
Generally, when we look gaps between a pitcher’s ERA and FIP, it’s to validate a buy-low candidate. In the case of Cole Ragans, though, it simply points to how good he’s been and how much better he can be.
In his first extended trip through the rotation, Ragans finished last year with a 3.14 ERA in 32 starts. That provided a good look at his upside, and Ragans appears to be looking to continue on that path. Through five starts this season, his ERA has jumped to 3.58, but he’s also had to contend with a .355 BABIP. What has helped is a spike in strikeouts from 10.77 to 13.66 per nine innings.
When we get to Ragans’ 1.81 FIP, the difference of 1.77 is startling. Opposing hitters are batting just .226 against Ragans despite that BABIP, and his WHIP is just 1.12. Ragans’ FIP- is elite level at 44, and we should continue to expect big things from the left-hander.
Eduardo Rodriguez Still Has Value
Granted, Eduardo Rodriguez only made 10 starts last year due to health issues, but his ERA of 5.04 didn’t exactly generate optimism. That meant Rodriguez was devoid of fantasy value entering 2025, but it also represents upside for our fantasy teams. While Rodriguez isn’t going to be a top-of-the-rotation option, that doesn’t mean he can’t be a valuable member of your rotation.
With a 1.36 WHIP, it might not be an easy ride, but his .373 BABIP should take the blame as Rodriguez is walking just 2.45 batters per nine innings. Despite that, Rodriguez’s 4.09 ERA is still solid based on his role. However, it’s the 1.69 difference on the way to his 2.40 FIP that draws us in. The same can also be said for his 63 FIP-, as Rodriguez is striking out a career high 11.86 batters per nine innings. He’s also keeping the opposition off balance by allowing just a 4.9% barrel rate.
A league winner, Rodriguez is not, but the data suggests he could be a solid piece of a successful rotation.
