Coming into the season, the strength of the Seattle Mariners’ roster was projected to be their outstanding pitching staff. While they do sit in first place in the AL West – one game over the Houston Astros – they’ve done it largely on the merits of a bounce-back offense. Although Cal Raleigh and Jorge Polanco have been outstanding so far, Luke Raley could end the season as one of the key contributors to a productive offense.
Raley, who was drafted by the Dodgers in the seventh round of the 2016 draft, had a productive 2024 season. While his slash line at the end of the year wasn’t elite by any means – he posted a .243 batting average, .320 on-base percentage, and .463 slugging percentage – his second-half production ranked among the game’s best. That’s one of the reasons to pick up Raley, who is only rostered in 42% of Fantrax leagues.
Four Reasons Luke Raley is About to Break Out
Reason #1: An Outstanding Second Half of 2024
After the All-Star break, Raley hit .250/.357/.538. His .382 wOBA ranked 23rd among hitters with at least 150 plate appearances. While his all-around production was fantastic – his wOBA was better than that of Jose Ramirez, Marcell Ozuna, and Jarren Duran – he also harnessed the raw power he’s been able to flash throughout his career. In 2021, Raley’s maximum exit velocity (per Baseball Savant) was 113.5 MPH, which was high enough to be in the top 10% of MLB hitters. After his maximum exit velocity jumped to 114.3 MPH in 2023, Raley launched a home run last season that left his bat at 115.4 MPH and traveled 459 feet into the upper deck at T-Mobile Park.
We finally saw that type of power on a consistent basis during the second half of last season, when Raley knocked 12 home runs and ranked 11th in baseball with a .288 ISO. The power has always been in there; last season, he started to harness it.
Reason #2: Raley’s Much-Improved Plate Discipline
During his 2021 debut season, Raley struck out in nearly 35% of his plate appearances. That rate has fallen every year since then, culminating in a manageable 23.8% clip so far this season. While his tendency to strike out will likely always be a part of his game regardless of plate discipline – Raley has a 3rd percentile whiff rate, at 38% – he’s cut it down to a more modest flaw in his skillset.
Part of his improvements in the strikeout category this year can be attributed to a more aggressive approach at the plate. After swinging at 75.2% of pitches in the strike zone last season, he’s swung at 82.2% of said pitches this year. And even when he does chase pitches outside of the zone, he’s started making more contact as his career has progressed. After swinging and missing on nearly three-quarters of pitches he swung at outside the zone in 2022, the outfielder has made contact on nearly half of those offerings this year.
Reason #3: He’s Been Unlucky This Year
Expected stats – those based on quality of contact – are a fantasy baseball manager’s best friend. Raley is slashing just .206/.345/.324 with an OPS of .669 this season, which is a large reason he’s not rostered in over half of leagues. But his expected stats and batted-ball quality paint a different picture.
Raley’s average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, bat speed, and xwOBA all rank in at least the 79th percentile so far this season. There are eight other hitters who can say the same:
Corbin Carroll (.308 AVG, .376 OBP, 1.043 OPS)
Cal Raleigh (10 HR, t-1st MLB)
Shohei Ohtani (.292 AVG, .385 OBP, .538 SLG, .923 OPS)
Pete Alonso (.337 AVG, .453 OBP, .635 SLG, 1.088 OPS)
Oneil Cruz (.258 AVG, .366 OBP, .548 SLG, .914 OPS)
Aaron Judge (.405 AVG, .496 OBP, .703 SLG, 1.199)
James Wood (.257 AVG, .362 OBP, .560 SLG, .922 OPS)
Ben Rice (.259 AVG, .370 OBP, .541 SLG, .911 OPS)
Raley’s skill set and ability to hit the ball hard clearly set him up for success. While not all bad luck – he needs to strike out less and perhaps hit the ball with better launch angles, given his 52nd percentile Sweet Spot% – it’s clear, given the expected number,s that he’ll likely see more success on the back of the baseball card.
Reason #4: Raley Can Steal a Base, Too
One of the most prevalent trends in modern Major League Baseball is the pursuit of power-speed players. Relatively new statistics like WAR measure a player’s holistic contributions rather than just what they can do in the batter’s box. Those stats have been a driving factor in the uptick of power-speed players we’ve seen recently, and Luke Raley is certainly one of them.
Raley stole 11 bases in 13 attempts last season and has swiped two more so far this year. With impressive speed for a six-foot-three, 235-pound outfielder and first baseman, he provides value in the steals category for fantasy managers as well. Players like Raley can be especially useful in rotisserie leagues where stolen bases have more value compared to head-to-head points leagues.
The Mariners are on track for a breakout 2025 season, and Luke Raley could be one of the main reasons for that. His outstanding batted-ball quality, stolen base capabilities, and improved plate discipline make him a great outfield or first base option for fantasy baseball managers in deep leagues everywhere.
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