10 Fantasy Baseball Takeaways from 2025: First Base

The last (but not least) positional recap from 2025 is here. Pitcher is still to come, but today, it is all about first base. First base is often viewed as one of the deepest positions in fantasy baseball. With a nice blend of young talent and veteran stalwarts, this position provides tons of fantasy value. Continuing with this series, this article provides 10 takeaways from 2025 that fantasy baseball managers need to know and remember when drafting in 2026.

10 First Base Takeaways from 2025

1) Josh Naylor is extremely underrated in the fantasy baseball community

During draft season, Josh Naylor never gets the attention he deserves. Even during draft season, people exclaim how Naylor is flying under the radar. Some things just never change. According to NFCB data, Naylor was going on average as the 10th first baseman off the board. While the slot was not that bad, it represented a significant tier drop from players like Matt Olson and Pete Alonso to Naylor, who fell more in line with the range of Christian Walker and Jake Burger.

According to FanGraphs Auction Calculator (FGAC), Naylor has been the second most valuable first base option in fantasy. He has put together a fantastic season in which he is batting .295 with 20 homers and a surprising 30 stolen bases. This is the fourth straight season in which Naylor posted a wRC+ above 118. He is an excellent fantasy option and deserves more recognition.

2) Freddie Freeman is starting to decline ever so slightly

The results from Freddie Freeman were not bad by any means in 2025. The FGAC pegs Freeman as the 11th-best first baseman in fantasy for 2025. Freeman once again cleared the 20 home run threshold, which is something he has done every season since 2015. His batting average was excellent, and his wRC+ proves he is still one of the most consistent hitters in baseball.

However, 2026 will be Freeman’s age-36 season, and there are some signs of decline in his profile. Freeman’s whiff rate increased 7% to its highest mark since 2016. He also has seen his chase rate and, more importantly, his zone contact rate take a step backwards. While Freeman’s dominance against fastballs has continued, his production on breaking balls has regressed. This will be a situation to proceed with caution on heading into 2026.

3) Fantasy baseball managers should not forget about Triston Casas

This is more of a general reminder for the fantasy baseball community. Boston traded away Rafael Devers, and despite their plethora of young infielders, they do not have an answer at first base. Casas entered 2025 with high expectations, going as the 1B14 in drafts.

He struggled through 29 games before suffering a season-ending injury. All reports indicate that Casas will be ready for Opening Day in 2026. While not without risk, his profile offers significant fantasy appeal that should come at a discount in next year’s drafts. He does not turn 26 until January and is a player to keep on your radar

4) Ben Rice’s Baseball Savant page points to great things ahead

Ben Rice’s performance and subsequent playing time in a crowded Yankees’ clubhouse was inconsistent in 2025. However, there is a lot to be excited about. Taking one look at his Baseball Savant page, it is difficult not to fall in love with the player. Rice ranks in the 94th percentile or better in nearly every batted ball metric there is.

He also has above-average chase and whiff rates, providing a level of stability in his profile. There are some platoon concerns as Rice has slashed just .208/.271/.481 against lefties but he should have every chance to be the team’s everyday first baseman in 2026.

5) Luis Arraez really offers no upside for fantasy baseball managers

Fantasy baseball managers know who Luis Arraez is. They know what he offers in terms of fantasy value. However, every draft season, his ADP floats right around 15-20, and there is really no reason for it. Arraez was not necessarily bad in 2025. FGAC pegs him as the 22nd-best first baseman from last season.

He hit .292 with eight homers and 11 stolen bases. His contact skills remained the best in baseball. However, there is really no reason to draft him. More productive players going after him in drafts included Yandy Diaz, Michael Busch, Tyler Soderstrom, and Spencer Torkelson. Taking the shot on upside is always smarter than using a mid-round pick on Arraez.

6) Nick Kurtz is going to be a stud for years to come

Nick Kurtz is just a different breed of player. Expectations and hopes were high for Kurtz prior to the season. However, nobody was projecting that Kurtz would make his Major League debut prior to the end of April. Very few people expected a seamless transition to the Major Leagues as Kurtz crushed 36 home runs in his rookie season.

Kurtz’s first home run came on May 13. From that game forward, his 183 wRC+ would rank second in baseball. Higher than Ohtani, Schwarber, and all of the other MVP candidates except for Aaron Judge. Kurtz is the real deal, playing in Sacramento only helps, and he should be the top first baseman drafted in 2026.

7) Sometimes the age cliff is obvious: A la Paul Goldschmidt

While some players can avoid an age cliff for years, sometimes, we just need to accept that one is here. While Paul Goldschmidt was no longer considered an elite fantasy option heading into 2025, expectations were still high once he signed with the Yankees. This despite the fact that Goldschmidt was coming off the worst season of his career at 37 years old.

Things have unsurprisingly gotten worse in 2025 as Goldschmidt has struggled to earn consistent playing time in the second half. The lesson here? Pay attention to age. It is not everything, but this is something to be mindful of when drafting players like Freddie Freeman and Christian Walker.

8) It is never a bad idea to buy low on former top prospects: A la Spencer Torkelson

Whenever the shine wears off a player, it is never a bad time to buy in. Progression is not linear, and sometimes, prospects take a bit of time to adjust at the Major League level. Entering 2025, everybody was out on Spencer Torkelson. He was being drafted as the 1B40 in drafts.

Well, of course, this is the season in which Torkelson finished as 1B14. His 30 home runs paid off in a big way for anybody who was willing to take a flier late in drafts. This is an important lesson to take forward as fantasy managers will be forced to evaluate and determine the 2026 value of players like Kyle Manzardo, Jac Caglianone, and more this offseason.

9) We truly never know the timing of prospect promotions

Each off-season, we try and guess which prospects are going to earn a quick promotion to the Major Leagues. The popular bet this season was that Bryce Eldridge would be up early on in 2025 to help out the Giants. Instead, the Giants traded for Rafael Devers and did not promote Eldridge until halfway through September.

However, Kurtz and Caglianone were promoted very early in the season. Moral of the story: it is a complete crap shoot. If you want to take a late-round flier on a prospect, go for it. However, do not bank on a promotion just because the path to the Major Leagues seems obvious.

10) Matt Olson’s 2025 season was saved by a torrid September

Looking back on the season, 2025 looks like another great season for Olson. He hovered right around that 30 home run mark again while seeing his batting average bounce back up to .272. However, prior to a ridiculous September, many were asking the same questions about Olson that we were heading into 2025.

On August 26, Olson was slashing .264/.361/.443 with 19 homers through 592 plate appearances. Not bad, but the power production was underwhelming prior to Olson crushing another eight home runs in the final month to end the year. His batted ball data remained excellent despite his pull-air percentage dropping to the lowest point of his career. The evaluation on Olson will be difficult after he finished as the 1B7. I lean more toward a very good asset, but not an elite option at a deep position.