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Way Too Early Rankings – First Base

Fantasy BaseballFantasy Baseball Rankings
Dave Funnell
Author: Dave Funnell
10 min.read
Dynasty First Base Rankings Pete Alonso MLB Injury Report

Welcome to the Way Too Early Rankings – First Base Edition for November 2025. Here, I will go over my Top 10 at the first base position, reviewing what we’ve seen this past season, what we’re looking for this offseason, and what we can expect in 2026. I will be doing this for every position, so get ready for the ride.

Past rankings:

Catcher  |  First Base  |  Second Base  |  Third Base  |  Shortstop  |  Outfield Part 1  |  Outfield Part 2  |  Utility  |  Starting Pitcher Part 1  |  Starting Pitcher Part 2  |  Closers  |

What?! Your fantasy baseball league wasn’t hosted on Fantrax this season? Preposterous! Check out what the Fantrax MLB Commissioner has to offer, and we think you’ll be singing a different tune for the 2026 MLB season.

Way Too Early 2026 First Base Rankings

1. Pete Alonso – New York Mets

I’m going out on a limb here, but Pete Alonso seems the most stable to me in terms of what to expect. Since 2021, he’s had four seasons where he’s hit at least 37 home runs and posted batting averages of .262 or more. Additionally, for the years that he didn’t, he still managed to crush 34 home runs in 2024. There’s also an argument to be made that he had valid reasons for his less productive seasons (wrist problems and contract discussions).

Now, entering free agency, there is uncertainty, as he could land somewhere unfavorable to his profile while needing to make adjustments to his new home ballpark. However, he did well to lower his strikeout rate, increase his average exit velocity, and become one of the more reliable first basemen in the game. Others will have him lower on their lists, but I’m making him my top player here.

2. Nick Kurtz – Sacramento Athletics

Nick Kurtz made his debut midseason and hit the ground running. In only 117 games, he finished with 36 home runs, tying him for 10th in all of baseball. What makes it all the more impressive is that he hit a lot of his home runs to the opposite field, showing immense power mixed with the ability to think quickly on the fly.

Still, not all is well, as his 30.9% strikeout rate is concerning. This, along with his .200 xBA against breaking pitches, shows a weakness that pitchers can plan for when attacking him in 2026. Is he good enough to overcome this? Probably, though, there is a chance that he goes through some rough patches, and his .290 batting average from 2025 gets closer to his xBA of .248 in 2026.

As such, here in the fall of 2025, I have him ranked second, with the possibility that he will struggle to make consistent adjustments. My opinion may change by Opening Day.

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Toronto Blue Jays

This will hurt the feelings of my family and friends who adore the Blue Jays, but Guerrero is not the best first baseman in baseball. His 2025 season was marred by inconsistency and a lack of impact.

What this means is that he didn’t really stand out as someone who took over many games and forced his will to help the Blue Jays… in the regular season. Instead, he finished with the fourth-highest home run total of his seven seasons in the majors, all with a relatively high BABIP.

It’s hard to pinpoint why his overall numbers were as low as they were, and perhaps it’s because expectations are always so high. Is this who he is, a very good player who can hit for some power, a high batting average, all while scoring and driving in runs? Probably, and while he still has time to reach those lofty expectations, his 2021 season seems like the true anomaly year.

4. Matt Olson – Atlanta Braves

Matt Olson feels like a safe bet here, in a new tier below the players listed above, simply because he has been this generation’s Cal Ripken Jr. since arriving in Atlanta. In that time, he’s been a reliable source of power with a varying degree of success at the plate. Despite a strikeout rate that has hovered around 24% while a member of the Braves, his batting average fluctuates to the point of making him somewhat of a wild card with expectations in that department. That said, he feels like someone who will give you what you need for where he’s being drafted, just don’t go reaching for him if you miss out on power early on in drafts.

5. Vinnie Pasquantino – Kansas City Royals

This ranking might be a reach, but I was really impressed with Vinnie Pasquantino down the stretch. His 10 home runs in August were an impressive feat, and his three months of batting at least .290 at the plate show just what he’s capable of doing when healthy.

His poise and presence at the plate give him a significantly plausible chance to build on 2025’s success, making it quite possible for him to be a true four-category contributor. The 28-year-old hits the ball hard. If he can find a way to go opposite field more than he has (22.0% in 2025 was his career-high), he has a chance to better utilize the massive outfield in Kauffman Stadium. As someone in his prime, 2026 could be his breakout year, where he puts it all together.

6. Bryce Harper – Philadelphia Phillies

This ranking is likely to change before the start of the season, but it may be for better or for worse. The once elite mainstay of the Phillies has taken a step or two back in recent years because of health concerns.

Since the start of the 2022 season, he has averaged 126 games played, 24 home runs, and a .281 batting average, which is all well and good. However, those numbers are not what we saw from him earlier in his career, when he was one of baseball’s best players. In that timeframe, he has also missed time due to a fractured thumb, Tommy John surgery, a strained hamstring, and inflammation in his wrist, all of which landed him on the Injured List.

At age 33, time is running out for him to turn back the clock and rejuvenate his career. He’s already been called out by management for his inefficient play, and it remains to be seen if that will inspire him or not. Regardless, he can once again be an elite player, but the writing has been on the wall for a while.

7. Josh Naylor – Seattle Mariners

Josh Naylor’s successful season was such a huge surprise for many reasons. First, his 30 stolen bases were such a surprise that it’s hard to believe he can do it again. To put it into context, after seven seasons in baseball, he now has 55 total steals. And while it’s fair to question if he can repeat this 2025’s success, it must be noted that he actually played better as a member of the Mariners, where their ballpark is one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in baseball.

If he did it there, he can do it anywhere, right? I guess so, but looking at his past, the 2025 season was the first time he was a complete player with little to no warts in his fantasy profile. Perhaps he baffles us again, because at age 28, he should be in his prime. This ranking of him seventh overall may look foolish in a few months.

8. Rafael Devers – San Francisco Giants

Rafael Devers is one of the players in baseball whose success confuses me. First, as a member of the Red Sox, he was playing through an injured shoulder and back, which caused the end of his 2024 season to end in misery. Then, without offseason surgery, he had an incredible start to the 2025 season as Boston’s designated hitter before being traded to San Francisco and used as their first baseman.

Deep down, I always believed that he refused to play first base because he didn’t want his injury to resurface, but then he finished the season as one of the few players in history to play 163 games in a season. To top that all off, he hit 20 home runs in 90 games as a Giant, overcoming the hitting obstacles of Oracle Park.

So now, ranking him for 2026 becomes a challenge because, despite that success, he still struck out 26.3% of the time, with more of that taking place as a member of the Giants. He may wind up being a three-category contributor, hence the placement here on this list.

9. Freddie Freeman – Los Angeles Dodgers

Looking at Freddie Freeman’s Statcast page and comparing his sliders from 2023 through 2025 may give you a bit of a pause. It looks like he is slowly starting to decline, as there is a lot of wear and tear on his 36-year-old body. He also played with a wonky ankle last season, and there were times when he showed how much it was actually hurting. All of that is to say that while Father Time is likely creeping in soon, there’s still probably one or two more usable seasons out of the back-to-back World Series Champion, but his days of providing five categories of production are probably over.

10. Tyler Soderstrom – Sacramento Athletics

2025 was a breakthrough season for Tyler Soderstrom, as he was able to demonstrate power, speed, and potential. He also lowered his strikeout rate and spread the ball all over the field. The problem here is that this surge lacked any consistency, making it difficult to trust. If we look at his monthly totals, we see a massive dip in the middle that shows some rock-bottom concerns. Over a 49-game stretch in May through to July, he hit .214 with just five home runs, raising some worries that he could do this again in the future. Still, he recovered nicely in the second half, is just 23 years old, and had incredibly even and encouraging home and away splits. There is a chance for him to not just do what he did last season, but improve on it.

Quick Hits

Both Salvador Perez and Ben Rice have catcher eligibility and should be used as your team’s catcher over this position… Spencer Torkelson came back with a vengeance in 2025, matching a career high in home runs with 31. He was also able to lower his strikeout rate and walk more often, which led to his best season to date. He will likely be a hindrance at batting average though… Yandy Diaz was incredibly productive all season, generating a career-high 25 home runs with his second-best average exit velocity. It remains to be seen if this can be maintained next season when the Rays move back into Tropicana Field… Michael Busch was batting .297 just before the All-Star Break, but managed to hit just .218 the rest of the way, leading to some doubt that his early start can be repeated in 2026… Jonathan Aranda was the clear breakout player of the season before his (almost) season-ending injury caused him to miss extensive time. He still managed to finish with a .316 batting average, and a look under the hood suggests that this wasn’t a fluke. He just probably won’t provide fantasy teams with enough counting stats to move him into the Top 10 at this position… Don’t sleep on Alec Burleson next season, as his 2025 went somewhat unnoticed. However, looking at his expected home runs by park, Busch Stadium ranks near the bottom of what could have been. If we knew that he would play every day, there’s a chance for upside here… Kyle Manzardo hit 27 home runs last season and has the prospect pedigree to do more damage in 2026.

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Dave Funnell
Dave Funnell
Dave has been playing fantasy baseball for many years and plans on doing so for many more.

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