2026 Dynasty Baseball Prospects: Daily Write-Up Series #115 Carson Williams

We’re 92 days from Opening Day, and the 2026 Dynasty Baseball Prospects: Daily Write-Up series turns to one of the more polarizing talents in the minors. Checking in at #115 is Carson Williams, a former top-10 prospect in the Rays system whose climb has been anything but linear.

The upper levels have exposed real swing-and-miss concerns, forcing a tougher evaluation than the early hype suggested, but the total package still demands attention. Between the elite defense, impact power, speed, and the Rays’ track record of maximizing athletic upside, Williams remains a high-variance bet, one dynasty baseball managers cannot simply write off as the list resets heading into 2026.

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Daily Baseball Write-Up Series #115 Carson Williams

The Rays didn’t wait around with Carson Williams, and he didn’t tiptoe into The Show either. At 22, he jumped right into a full season’s worth of run and put his stamp on games with explosive power, plus athleticism, and that trademark edge Tampa loves in its infielders. There’s real impact here already; the question is how quickly the hit tool tightens enough to turn loud flashes into sustained star-level production.

What Williams just did is the kind of foundation you want from a young shortstop breaking in: 23 homers, 22 steals, and a .765 OPS in 451 plate appearances while playing premium defense. He was roughly league-average by run value (about a 99 wRC+), which sounds mundane until you factor in age, position, and the shape of the production. The OBP at .318 held up because he’ll take a walk (56 free passes, roughly a 12% clip), but the batting average drag to .213 stems from real swing-and-miss. A 17.2% swinging-strike rate is hefty and pushes the strikeouts into the mid-30s percentage-wise. The good news: the underlying decision-making isn’t broken. He shows enough zone awareness to keep getting to his damage.

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The batted-ball mix backs up the damage. Williams pulled the ball nearly half the time (49.4%) with a healthy combination of fly balls (38.3%) and liners (26.4%), fueling a strong .234 ISO. That’s a classic young slugger blueprint: pull-side lift, impact contact, and athleticism that steals bags even when the hits don’t fall.

We don’t need a pile of Statcast superlatives to see it either. His 23 homers at 22 years old at this level of contact quality play. If he nudges the contact rate up even modestly, think trimming the whiff so the strikeouts live in the high-20s instead of the 30s, the same swing decisions and batted-ball shape put 30 home runs firmly in range. The Rays’ development group has a track record of micro-adjustments in bat path and two-strike approach, and Williams doesn’t need to morph into a 55-hit bat to take off. A small contact bump plus his existing plan would go a long way.

Defensively, he’s a plus at short, and that matters for fantasy. It keeps the lineup spot sticky through the inevitable growing pains and ensures the counting stats show up. The speed is real and actionable, 22 steals isn’t a blip, and the OBP baseline gives him enough table time to rack up runs and RBI in a deep Rays lineup. The batting average will be volatile year to year as long as the whiff lives at this level, but the power-speed combo is already big-league functional.

Fantasy Outlook

Williams is a classic dynasty buy if you can stomach short-term batting average flux. In OBP formats, he’s already a top-12 dynasty shortstop for me thanks to the walks, 25+ homer power, and 15–20 steal wheels. In standard 5×5, he’s more of a volatile MI/UTIL who can swing your week with a heater but needs batting-average insulation on your roster. Points formats are trickier given the strikeout tax, though his walks and extra-base thump soften the blow. Big picture: the floor is playable because of speed, OBP, and defense-driven playing time; the ceiling is a .235–.245 hitter with 25–30 home runs and 18–22 steals once the strikeout rate slides into the high-20s. If the contact never moves, he’s still a category juice machine. If it does, you’re looking at an impact fantasy shortstop in his prime.

WELCOME TO THE BIGS, CARSON WILLIAMS 🤯

He DEMOLISHES his 1st career home run in his Major League debut 👏 pic.twitter.com/ghJy9DGCsF

— MLB (@MLB) August 23, 2025

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