Starting Pitching Busts for 2026 Fantasy Baseball

Last week, I published my starting pitching sleepers article, featuring a few pitchers I thought would provide value. Sleepers typically have been players who go under-the-radar and provide unexpected production. But with fantasy baseball managers so attuned to new information and data, it can be hard to find true sleepers. This is why the way we understand sleepers has changed. The same can be said for busts in fantasy baseball as well. The whole industry may fade a certain player. If that player ends up not performing well, he is not a true bust. Below I have collected a few pitchers that the market is not fading, but I am. These are pitchers I expect to underperform their ADPs, which is what a bust is, in today’s fantasy landscape.

Starting Pitching Busts

Hunter Greene CIN (49 ADP)

To clarify, this is not to say Hunter Greene will pitch poorly. That is not what a bust is, necessarily. Bust candidates are players who will not return value on their ADP. For example, Greene was SP16 by ADP last season, but SP22 by Fangraphs’ fantasy dollar value player rater. Technically, that is a mild bust – expectations did not match production.

This season could be similar for Greene. His 2026 ADP is SP11, but will he return that kind of value? The key for Greene will be staying healthy. He missed time in 2022 with a shoulder injury, in 2023 with a hip injury, in 2024 with an elbow injury, and in 2025 with a groin injury. He has never pitched more than 150 innings in any of his four seasons in the bigs. If injuries continue to hamper him, his value will be capped.

In Greene’s last two seasons, he posted 2.75 and 2.76 ERAs, which look great on the surface. However, he experienced some fortunate circumstances.

In 2024, he walked more than three batters per nine innings, pitched to a .237 BABIP, and had an incredibly high 80% LOB rate. That was 8% higher than in 2023. He also had a below-average groundball rate. Greene’s HR/FB rate that season was also below league average. Basically, he walked a bunch of batters, had more batted balls turn into outs than normal, and had a lower percentage of flies turn into homers than normal. This all explains why his xFIP and SIERA were both a run higher than his ERA.

Greene made some improvements in 2025, specifically to his walk rate. His HR/FB% also came back to earth. But he allowed harder hit balls than in previous seasons, and had a higher rate of line drives, but still somehow managed a low .245 BABIP. On top of that, his LOB rate was incredibly high, at 82%, and his GB% was below average. Once again, his xFIP and SIERA were higher than his ERA.

Greene plays in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball, and with a low GB%, that will come back to hurt him. If he gets a little less luck with balls in play and if his LOB% returns to a normal rate, his ERA will climb. That will make it nearly impossible for him to return a top-10(ish) value. This makes him a starting pitcher bust candidate for 2026.

Kyle Bradish BAL (80 ADP)

Kyle Bradish is another pitcher that drafters have selected very early in drafts – as SP18 – though he could return far less value. Bradish missed time in 2024 and 2025 due to Tommy John surgery, pitching just 71 innings between the two seasons.

Yes, those innings were high quality, but also potentially fluky. Also, organizations typically act conservatively with pitchers returning from these major injuries. Most projections reflect this, suggesting he will accrue somewhere between 100 and 140 innings. It can be hard to return high value in so few innings. Three players last season returned top-25 value as starting pitchers in fewer than 140 IP, according to Fangraphs’ value chart. They were Nathan Eovaldi, Hunter Greene, and Chris Sale. Only Eovaldi ranked inside the top-20.

Those three pitchers all also had sub-3 ERAs last season, adding significantly to their value. Bradish projects for a mid-high-3 ERA according to most projection systems.

In Bradish’s only season of more than 110 IP (2023), he finished with a 2.83 ERA. His xFIP was 3.53, and his SIERA was 3.76, so he clearly outpitched his metrics in that season. But is the ERA from that season the basis of fantasy managers drafting so high? He had major increases in his strikeout rate in 2024 and 2025, but those seasons were such a small sample size that it can be difficult to figure out if he could have sustained those numbers through the rest of the season.

Many will say Bradish is a high-risk, high-reward type of pitcher. It could be true, but to draft him top-100 overall is too high. It is unlikely the reward matches the risk. He is a clear starting pitching bust candidate for this season.

Nolan McLean NYM (99 ADP)

Another player drafted inside the top-100 overall (barely) is Nolan McLean, but with the upside comes some significant question marks.

McLean looked great in his 48-inning debut season in 2025. He owned a 10.6 K/9 rate and allowed three walks per nine innings. However, his 84% LOB rate and 61% GB rate seem unsustainably high over a full season. Among qualified starters last season, only Garrett Crochet and Freddy Peralta had a strand rate of 84% or higher. And only Jose Soriano had a groundball rate over 60%.

With so little data from the majors to go on, let us look at McLean’s minor league data, where he had a 16.5% K-BB rate in 113 IP in 2025 and a 16% rate in 109 IP in 2024. He was a high-strikeout pitcher in the minors, but also a high-walk pitcher. Of the 35 qualified pitchers with a 16.5% K-BB rate or less, only eight had a sub-4 ERA last season in the majors. Of those eight, only Framber Valdez had an ERA better than 3.50.

While McLean clearly possesses some great stuff, considering his 117 Stuff+ from last season, his below average 95% Location+ leaves much to be desired.

He is a risky pick inside the top-100 and is in line to be a starting pitching bust in 2026.