Dark Horse Awards Bold Predictions

As opening day approaches, we shift from projection season to prediction season. I’m not sure I’ve seen a year so chalky for 5 of 6 awards, so I’m combining Bold Predictions to make some Dark Horse awards picks. I won’t engage in morbid speculation about why those players won’t win, just what these players need to do to get there.

Dark Horse Awards Bold Predictions

AL Dark Horse MVP:  Denzel Clarke

I wrote up Clarke already, but here’s the rundown: He’s hit a ball 115mph, has 97th percentile speed, elite center field defense to play every day, and plays half his games in Sacramento. Jacob Wilson hit 13 homers there in 125 games, and the hardest he’s ever hit a ball is 108.5mph. Clarke did whiff a lot, but it was his first taste of the majors, and his chase rate was 30% – bad but not disastrous. If he makes any adjustments to big league stuff, he can be a monster.

How it Happens: Highlight reel defense with 30+ homers, 40+ steals, and a little batted ball luck to get his average up could be enough to sway voters tired of big sluggers

NL Dark Horse MVP: Michael Harris II

Look, I’ve never liked his profile. Sure, he posts EVs around 114 and makes a ton of contact, but he swings at everything he can put a little wood on – 40% career chase rate – which leads to a lot of bad contact. Wait, what’s that? This spring, he’s only chasing 30% of the time? And walking 10%? The only player who did that with similar EVs last year and had a wRC+ under 100 was Oneil Cruz, and only an injury hampered William Contreras was under 120. The rest of the list is the best hitters in baseball – Judge, Soto, Ohtani, Vlad, etc.

How it happens: Harris maintains these gains and unlocks a rare power-contact combo while playing plus center field defense every day. He probably also has to steal a stupid number of bases under the guidance of new first base coach Antoan Richardson, who guided Juan Soto and his 13th percentile sprint speed to 38 bags last year.

AL Dark Horse Cy Young: Ryan Pepiot

The stats that try to normalize ERA for external factors like xFIP, xERA, and SIERA said Pepiot overperformed last year despite playing in a minor league ballpark. Reports on conditions there indicate that wind patterns shifted dramatically, creating unpredictable park factors that are hard to fully account for. Pepiot is a career 45% fly-ball pitcher, and while he got the lower BABIP you’d expect with that, his home run rate ticked up to 13.8%. Not extreme, but returning to the Trop should allow his stuff, which has always graded out well, to play up. He has six pitches that grade at 97 stuff or above, including 112 on his four-seam, 109 on his curve, and 117 on his change-up.

How it happens: A full year in a pitcher-friendly park gives him the confidence to attack hitters with his premium stuff and improve his overall results to push his ERA close to 3 in 180+ innings

NL Dark Horse Cy Young: Kodai Senga

He finished 7th in 2023 but dealt with a variety of injuries and loss of command in 2024-25, leading to a 6.56 second-half ERA and a demotion in the middle of a playoff push. Well, this spring he hit 96.6 with his fastball, up two full ticks higher than last year’s peak – and hasn’t walked anyone yet.

How it Happens: Senga returns to 2023 form, plus an extra tick of velo, and leads the Mets to a division title with help from their revamped defense and some Luis Robert highlights.

AL Rookie of the Year: Payton Tolle OR Connelly Early

I don’t think there’s an obvious frontrunner here, so the field’s wide open. I’m hedging on this one because I don’t know which one will get a starting rotation spot first, but I’m betting they don’t give it up. Both soared through the minors last year to debut from well off the radar. Sawks pitching dev sure has been cooking. Still, the Red Sox added as many starters as they traded away, shoring up their top three and making a bet on fixing Johan Oviedo. Up until even a couple of weeks ago, it looked like he would be the 5th starter, but walks have piled up despite positive results otherwise. Meanwhile, Tolle has 13 Ks to just one walk, and Early has thrown 7 more innings than either and looked sharp. Bryan Bello also hasn’t exactly wowed this spring, so maybe they both get spots and split the vote.

How it Happens: Tolle gets the job and rides his spring command and the 119 Stuff+ he’s already shown us to a dominant season for The Mass Pike.

How it Happens: Early gets the job and uses his excellent command (107 location+) and five average-ish pitches to keep hitters off balance as a crafty lefty who also happens to throw 94.

NL Dark Horse Rookie of the Year: Owen Caissie

Konnor Griffin is the clear front-runner, so I’m skipping him. Nolan McLean would also be a pretty good bet for a pitcher, so I’m going with Owen Caissie. This spring, I’ve looked a lot at what makes a high strikeout rate work, and Caissie has been on the good side of every metric I looked at. He has a selective aggressiveness both on strikes and fastballs, with the power to turn those decisions into barrels. He’s got the job out of camp and had some exposure to big league pitching last year, putting him ahead of someone like Griffin in the adjustment period.

Bold Enough For Ya?

There, I did the thing every sports writer has to do at the start of the season. I’ve made my offering to the Bold Predictions Gods so that the rain may come again and our draft crops may grow and be fruitful.