Sultan of Stat: Advanced Pitching Statistics

Don’t panic. I know it’s easier said than done, but we have to try and stay even keeled. A bad start counts just the same, but it feels different in the first week of April rather than in July. Simply put, it’s way too soon to look at your pitcher’s ERA, and it’s also unclear as to whether or not we should believe the numbers in the stat line.

For that reason, it’s important to consider a pitcher’s expected ERA and how it looks with respect to their performance. Let’s dig into three starting pitchers whose ERAs shouldn’t scare you off. In fact, it should represent a buying opportunity if that is possible.

More great Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire | Weekly SP Rankings | Pitching Streamers | Two-Start Pitchers | Lineup Analysis | MLB Injury Report | Rookie Report | Advanced Stats | Under the Radar | Overvalued & Undervalued | Bullpen Report

Advanced Hitting Statistics – Expected ERA Gainers

Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

For all of the optimism surrounding Jesus Luzardo and his new contract this winter, we didn’t expect a 6.23 ERA. That’s not even close to a respectable ERA for any major league pitcher. The good news is that it’s not real.

Well, sorry, it’s real in the sense that you have to stare at it on your roster. But it can only go down from here.

In Luzardo’s case, it has a long way to drop given his 2.84 xERA. The left-hander is striking out 13.50 batters per nine innings while walking just 2.08. He’s also generating a career-high 52.5% ground ball rate while averaging a career-high 97.4 miles per hour on his fastball. At the risk of oversimplifying things, Luzardo is dominating opposing hitters and is the victim of bad luck. After all, he has a .359 BABIP against.

Hitters just aren’t squaring the ball up against the left-hander. He has an average exit velocity against of just 86.2 miles per hour, which compares well to his career average of 89.1. Between a 24.4% hard hit rate and a 7.8-degree average launch angle, Luzardo’s on a clear path to success. And if you are hunting for more optimism, we shouldn’t look past his 2.38 FIP and 1.66 xFIP.

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers

At this point, I’m not sure that Brandon Woodruff will regain his velocity. Both injuries and age haven’t been kind to Woodruff, but by all accounts, he’s healthy and still a successful pitcher. That’s despite the fact that, while his career average is 95.9 miles per hour on his fastball, Woodruff managed 93 miles per hour last year and 92.7 so far this year.

Last year, Woodruff had a 3.20 ERA, and so far this season, he sits at 4.32. However, with a 2.85 xERA, I’m not sure things are as bad as they might seem. He’s striking out close to a batter per inning (8.64) while walking just 1.62 batters per nine innings.

The biggest outlier to begin the season is Woodruff’s 1.62 home runs allowed per nine innings. Other than that, it appears that Woodruff still has a lot to offer as he’s adjusted his game. After a career fastball spin rate of 2,306, Woodruff is up to 2,375 to begin the season. Don’t overlook him just yet.

Landen Roupp, San Francisco Giants

It’s been a strong and somewhat surprising start to the season for Landen Roupp. That’s evident by his 3.24 ERA to begin the season. Instead of looking to poke holes in Roupp’s performance thus far, everything we’ve seen supports it. In fact, his 2.39 xERA and 1.93 FIP point to even more success.

Roupp has yet to allow a home run this season, but taking things even further, in 46 batted balls, not one has been barreled. He’s generating a 54.3% ground ball rate while striking out 9.72 batters per nine innings. With a hard hit rate against of just 26.1%, hitters simply aren’t making strong contact against Roupp.

While he won’t make it a whole season without allowing a barreled ball against, Roupp is off to a pretty good start.