Fantasy Baseball Overvalued and Undervalued – Louis Varland Dominating the Ninth Inning

As we inch towards the All-Star break and a chance to pause from setting our lineups every day or week, we are starting to get a clearer sense of who is overvalued and undervalued based on the cost to acquire their services in drafts or auctions this spring. Some performances have exceeded expectations, while others have fallen behind. And time is running out to change their fortunes.

Value is an ever-changing target, but we do have a snapshot in time to look at how we valued these players in our drafts this spring. With about 90-92 games played for each team this season, it’s a good time to look at who is performing as we hoped and who is falling behind.

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This weekly piece looks at the past few weeks of fantasy baseball performances to see who should be considered overvalued and undervalued going forward. When necessary, I will reference the Fantrax top 400 rotisserie rankings for the 2026 fantasy baseball season.

Fantasy Baseball’s Most Overvalued Players

(Stats are up to date as of July 6)

Garrett Mitchell (OF – MIL)

What’s not to like about Garrett Mitchell’s .337/.387/.640 over the last 30 days? Well, Mitchell has one of the highest individual BABIPs in the league over the last 30 days. Mitchell (.392) is getting so very lucky, and is using that BABIP to rise up the fantasy ranks recently.

Mitchell is going to see regression come quickly. He is slightly older and slower than in past seasons, but he has also lost some of the bat speed and plate discipline that defined the last few seasons of his career.

What’s concerning for Mitchell is that when he is not putting the ball in play, he has a 28% strikeout rate in those 30 days, more than four percentage points above last season. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both down from last season, which puts his expected numbers much lower than his actual .263 average (.255 expected batting average).

Mitchell isn’t piling up enough counting stats (eight home runs, six steals, 38 runs) to be relevant on those alone, and I think his average and on-base ability could regress in the months ahead.

Riley Greene (OF – DET)

Riley Greene is a nominal power hitter, but has just 13 home runs in 90 games. Does that mean overvalued? The odd fact about Greene is that he has struggled with power this season despite some exceptional luck and success in all other aspects of his hitting. Those have probably propped up his home runs as well through three and a half months.

Greene is slashing .292/.380/.474 in 2026, but has the third-highest BABIP in the league at .383. He is only five points behind the American League leader in the category this season (Nick Kurtz). Greene is also 35 points above his career average in that department. Because of the high number, he is racking up runs (46) and RBI (44), but something has to give.

Greene also strikes out 27% of the time and has a barrel rate that has dropped by over three percentage points since 2025. If you were hoping for a home run surge from Greene soon, his mini one over the last couple of weeks will likely have to do. The numbers suggest his average and on-base percentage (OBP) should drop sometime in the second half.

Fantasy Baseball’s Most Undervalued Players

Louis Varland (RP – TOR)

Here are the pitching stats for two pitchers through July 6 of the 2026 season:

Pitcher A – 36.2 innings, two wins, 22 saves, 67 strikeouts, 0.98 ERA, 0.82 WHIP

Pitcher B – 47 innings, three wins, 18 saves, 65 strikeouts, 0.96 ERA, 0.96 WHIP

Pitcher A is Mason Miller, the fireballer, no-doubt-about-it number-one relief pitcher for 2026. Pitcher B is Louis Varland. The strikeouts and wins are essentially the same. Miller has a few more strikeouts. Varland has a slightly better ERA, but you can argue his is more valuable because it has come across more innings pitched.

Varland has given up one run since June 13 and just recently came up fractions of a point shy of throwing his fastball 100 miles per hour. He has seven saves in the last month and is now up to a perfect 18-for-18 in save chances.

Somebody tell me why he is only 85% rostered in Fantrax fantasy baseball leagues? Has been one of the best relievers for more than a month.

JJ Bleday (OF – CIN)

One of the best players at the plate, but absolutely one of the unluckiest players in Major League Baseball over the last month, has been Reds outfielder JJ Bleday. Despite a 15% walk rate and just an 18% strikeout rate, Bleday has only slashed .159/.299/.295 because of a horrific .167 BABIP.

Among all qualified batters, that is the third-lowest mark in baseball over the last month. The fact that Bleday is seeing the ball so well at the plate and is not chasing balls out of the zone has not translated into production.

Bleday is better than the 70th percentile of batters in bat speed, walk rate, chase rate, sweet spot rate, and xwOBA, according to Statcast. His overall batting average is just .233 on the season, but his expected batting average is 30 points higher at .263.

Bleday’s expected slugging rate is 80 points higher than his real number. Bleday has 13 home runs halfway through the 2026 season. If luck turns back in his direction in the second half, he could pass 30 home runs before the season ends.