Starting Pitcher Barometer, Week 1: Country Fried Rotation

Welcome to 2019 baseball! It’s a new season and a new weekly column right here on Fantrax. Each week in this space I’ll be ranking the Top 100 Starting Pitchers. One important thing to note is that I won’t be ranking currently injured starters. I also won’t be ranking prospects before their callups. Not only is it a bit of a fool’s errand trying to gauge the value of injured players, but it’s also a crapshoot trying to determine when they’re returning. Anticipating callups is a similarly futile exercise. So you won’t find injured starter CC Sabathia this week, prospect Forrest Whitley, or injured prospect Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo gets the double whammy. I’ll be more than happy to answer such value questions either in the comments here or on Twitter @NathanDokken.

Each week I’ll be focusing primarily on a handful of pitchers who have dramatically risen or fallen on the list since the prior week. I’ll also dive into any notable new additions. One final thing to note is how I value these starters. This is not a weekly matchups ranking, but rather a rest-of-season ranking. I won’t be super knee-jerky if a high-end starter has a trio of duds. Conversely, I won’t hesitate to give some shlub at 86 the boot if he has a blow-up. At this point, everything beyond SP 75 is very interchangeable.

Since there are obviously no risers or fallers, this being Week 1 and all, instead I’m going to focus on some pitchers within rotations that interest me. There will much more statistical analysis as the season rolls along, but this week we’re looking at quite a few rookies, so it will feel a bit scoutier than usual.

The regular season is upon us! Don’t worry, there’s still time to add that “one more league!” Leagues are still forming at Fantrax.com, so head on over and jump in one today.

Early Starting Pitcher Takeaways

Braves Rotation

• Bryse Wilson – We’ve got a real youth movement in Atlanta, at least as long as Mike Foltynewicz and Kevin Gausman are out of commission. Gausman isn’t expected to miss more than a couple of days, but Folty is going to miss at least a couple of weeks. As a result, Wilson will have a chance to prove he belongs in the rotation. The 21-year old righty made a brief debut last year with the Braves, but in the minors posted a 3.44 ERA over 125.2 innings with 143 strikeouts and 36 walks. He has strong command of his fastball and pairs it with a decent slider and changeup. He can be a very useful streamer in standard mixers while he’s up.
• Kyle Wright – Wright is a more highly touted prospect than Wilson, and deservedly so. He’s got the better pedigree as a first-round pick in 2017, and he checks all the same boxes Wilson does and then some. Wright has a great frame, fastball/slider/changeup, and also a curveball, unlike Wilson. Wilson’s control is certainly better than Wright, but if I had to count on one of them sticking in the rotation the longest, I’d stick with Wright.
• Max Fried – The first guy I’d expect to get the boot among this trio is Fried. Although it feels like he’s been around forever, he’s just 25. He has already bounced around between the bullpen and rotation last season, so we know the Braves are willing to banish him to the pen. He has a starter’s repertoire, with a fastball/curve/change all being utilized over 10% last season. However, his control is…not good. He has a career 4.83 BB/9 in the majors, including a 5.35 BB/9 in 2018. He will turn your prime rib of a rotation into a country Fried steak. Which is also quite tasty I suppose, but just go with it. I wouldn’t be tempted to even consider him a stream.

Padres Rotation

• Matt Strahm – The Padres have the most interesting team in baseball if you ask me, and their rotation is the highlight. Strahm pitched mostly out of the pen last year but crushed over his five starts (13.1 measly IP), posting a 1.35 ERA with 18 strikeouts and just three walks. He has the repertoire to start with a fastball, changeup, slider, and curve. The changeup earned a strong 5.8 pVAL in 2018 and the slider drew 24.84% whiffs. With just over 75 innings pitched last year, he won’t give you a starter workload all season. However, he could be good for a strong five innings each time out until the Padres opt to shut him down, and in a world where Rich Hill is rostered everywhere, Strahm should be too.
• Chris Paddack – Paddack has had more fanfare coming up through the minors than Strahm. He was unfortunately delayed by Tommy John in 2017, but he was strong enough this Spring Training to secure a spot in the rotation right out of the gate. He posted an obscene 120:8 K:BB ratio over his 90 minor league innings in 2018, and he didn’t stop this spring with a 20:2 K:BB over his 12.2 innings. He pairs his fastball with a curveball and the best changeup in the minor leagues. Combine that repertoire with plus command, and you have my attention. He could should also face workload restrictions at some point, but he needs to be owned in all formats for the time being.

Orioles Rotation

• Bahahaha just kidding

Marlins Rotation

• Caleb Smith – Smith was dealing in 2018 before a severe lat strain ended his season after 16 starts. There was a question as to whether or not he’d be ready for Opening Day after he was brought along slowly in Spring Training. With the release of Dan Straily however, Smith has made the rotation out of camp. Smith posted a beastly 19:1 K:BB over his 13.1 spring innings, with his velocity back up to where it was last season. He had control issues in 2018, so it will be interesting to see if the spring walk numbers stick. If they do, he is poised for a breakout. He features a filthy slider that will keep his strikeout rate well over a K per inning, putting him on the radar as a streamer in standard mixed leagues.
• Pablo Lopez – Lopez is another rotation beneficiary with Wei-Yin Chen getting pushed to the pen. Lopez featured increased velocity this spring, posting a 0.90 ERA over 20 innings with a 16:1 K:BB. He pairs the fastball with a curveball and changeup. The 23-year old could be in store for a breakout season, although he doesn’t quite have the huge strikeout upside of Caleb Smith.
• Sandy Alcantara – Alcantara has been one of the most divisive prospects over recent years. Many have him tabbed as a bullpen piece long-term due to his extremely inconsistent control, but for the time being he is a member of the Marlins rotation. How interested should you be in him? Glad you asked! The answer is “not very” unless you’re looking to inflate your WHIP like a competitive eater at an Italian buffet. Alcantara walked 6.09 batters per nine in 2018, and this spring he walked 11 in 15.1 innings. Probably sit this one out.

Top 100 Starting Pitchers

Nathan Dokken is a member of the FSWA and has had his work featured in numerous books and magazines. He has also appeared on many podcasts and radio shows and hosts the Nasty Cast and Fantrax Dynasty Baseball podcasts. His written work can be found exclusively at Fantrax HQ, and his personal thoughts and opinions can be found on Twitter @NathanDokken.

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