Pitching isn’t easy. Seeing results on the field is one thing, but finding supporting data to back up the success takes things to the next level. Let’s dig into the advanced pitching stats of three pitchers whose ERAs and FIPs support that success.
Fantasy Baseball Advanced Pitching Stats
We Can Breathe Again In Philadelphia
There’s no way around Jesus Luzardo’s recent struggles. It was brutal. Those struggles were the type of thing that can truly ruin a season. Or, at the very least, simply crater your ratios. Over two starts, Luzardo allowed 20 runs. One bad start happens, two bad starts in a row is just a disaster.
The problem, though, is that Luzardo was likely in your starting lineup for both starts. What is even worse, though, is that it’s likely they earned him a trip to your bench. If that’s the case, then you missed the rebound performance from the left-hander. On Wednesday, he struck out 10 in six innings of one-run ball while scattering five hits and not walking a batter. The good news is that what we just saw from Luzardo is more typical of what we can expect for the rest of the season. Ultimately, he deserves the chance to make up for those struggles.
Those struggles inflated Luzardo’s ERA to 4.23, but with a FIP of 2.66, things should rebound. Luzardo is striking out 10.64 batters per nine innings while doing a great job of keeping the ball in the park (0.69 home runs per nine innings). He’s fallen victim to a .376 BABIP, and if someone weighs those two rough starts or his season-long ERA, then this is a buying opportunity.
Stream With Brown
You are forgiven if Ben Brown’s 5.71 ERA is something that keeps you away. The Chicago Cubs continue to be a strong team. That means we shouldn’t overlook anyone, let alone one of their starting pitchers. That puts Brown squarely on our radar. Ultimately, the expectation here is that Brown’s ERA decreases closer to his 3.31 FIP.
That’s a substantial decrease, and Brown’s .368 BABIP is the biggest culprit. With almost 11 strikeouts per nine innings, Brown shows upside along with the ability to work his way out of trouble. Walking three batters per nine innings isn’t ideal, but it’s also not something that’s going to crush Brown and his performance.
At worst, Brown is a streaming option, but you should judge him closer to his FIP than his ERA. The wide gap represents some fantasy value, but to be conservative, his xERA is 4.49. Run support won’t be an issue for Brown as the Cubs are surging. I’d still exercise some caution, but Brown is an interesting option.
What Do We Make of Kremer?
I feel like I have had the same internal debate on a weekly basis for the past two years. What should we do with Dean Kremer?
His spot continues to be secure in Baltimore’s rotation, and he factors into the decision in most starts. Through 14 games this year, 13 starts, Kremer is 5-7, but it comes with a 4.99 ERA. For those chasing wins, especially in weeks where Kremer has two starts or favorable matchups, it’s difficult to ignore him.
Before digging any deeper into the stats, Kremer’s value differs greatly based on where he is pitching. With a 2.90 ERA at home compared to 6.33 on the road, he’s completely unusable away from Baltimore. When looking at Kremer’s ERA, things could be even better based on his 4.34 FIP. The one knock, though, which puts him more in the streamer category, is the fact that Kremer only strikes out seven batters per nine innings. There’s value to be found, but you have to mine it correctly.
